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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: Think4Yourself who wrote (75579)10/4/2000 1:11:26 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical  Read Replies (1) of 95453
 
>> The big "Crash" scare tactics are based on a situation that no longer exhists. Stocks may still be somewhat overpriced, some ridiculously so, but the majority of the "speculative excesses" are gone. <<

I somewhat agree with that position. LU, INTC and MSFT seem reasonable on a valuation basis. However, high growth rates are still priced into to techs for that position to hold true. I do think growth will still exist in tech, but it may slow by as much as half due to a slowing US and global economy, slowing telecom spending, high energy prices, problems in Asia and the failure of some dot.com and other debt heavy startups. The IPO market which many tech stocks rely upon to raise additional cash could be dead for the foreseable future.

I also think the internet will continue to expand, but will it continue at the pace it has been going at the last 3 years? Questionable. Maybe the growth slows by 10-25% from where it was. That decrease could be enough to send techs to new lows.

In summary, there are too many potential negative catalysts for tech stocks. However, most of these catalysts will take time to become apparant. There will be many false rallies (trading ops to some).
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