Hi bill c.-
<Also with GTE even thinking about a CAP solution points to Westell
getting the contract. If GTE implement a DMT solution.. the contract
could go to either Westell or AMTX or both. Granted I do give AMTX the better odds if GTE selects DMT, but AMTX gets zero odds if GTE selects CAP>
I think your points are very well taken.
At this stage of the market, there is only advantage playing to flexibility and "what the customer wants".
IF it turns out that DMT becomes the *market* standard (and therefore all the CAP deployments wind up migrating to DMT), and IF Aware's DMT which is already extensively licensed doesn't grab hold, then Amati will need to license, at a fair and reasonable cost, the standards patent (remember, there is only one and it involves "tone-swapping" which Aware has an alternate to, which also *purportedly* works well).
So where will Amati shine?
IMO, in getting contracts for *product* - end-to-end solutions with tech as well as end-user modems.
And what does this hinge on currently?
Not necessarily tech. Ostensibly more in the *ability* of management to get *good* contracts. This of course means neither giving their tech away nor going for bust on sweepstakes contracts - but getting a good number of solid contracts.
So IMO, a purchase of Amati shares is a vote for management first, for tech second, and for the "standard", really, as a distant third.
Discussing takeovers - interesting speculation.
I agree that Cisco is probably already on the lookout.
I also think that Microsoft is on the lookout to expand into areas where Justice doesn't breath down their neck (and where they can deploy some of their 9 billion in cash, much of which is making a measly 5.25% in short term instruments). And though Gates definitiely wants bandwidth, I don't see Gates necessarily trying to influence the market in a specific direction (HDSL/ADSL, CAP/DMT, DMT/DWMT) at this stage of the game.
Intel also has cash to burn, and as this field matures, will likely want a piece.
And there are a number of interesting companies out there - check out, for instance, Netspeed: netspeed.com , formed by some guys from Networth and engineering staffs from Adtran, DSC, Intel, and Compaq. They are pushing "dial-up ADSL" as a cost efficient telco solution (< $200/line), and they also have some excellent intro pages to xDSL.
Anyway, some thoughts-
Steve |
