Depends on your time frame here. In the short term, who knows. Probably a safe bet that BMC will take a while to resume revenue growth. Therefore, it will take the common a while to get back. Then again, this is what many expected in the short term, in spite of hoping for better.
It is discouraging to see revenues shrinking at this fast a rate. Hopefully now that IBM's new mainframe pricing model is out, BMCS can stop the bleeding. Gotta do that before we have any chance to grow again.
Since I'm holding this thing for a while, I actually bought some more today. Wouldn't be surprised if we get a chance to buy it lower than $16'ish again, though. Then again, by any financial metric (forward PE, cash flow, sales/share, ...) BMCS is awfully cheap here. Gotta stem the decline in revenues before investors have confidence in those numbers though.
As for CA, it's definitely feeling like the bottom "range" has been hit. They did sequentially grow revenues from their preliminary announcement (you know the one where the CEO said he was "pleased" to announce a profit warning =-), whereas BMC preannounced another revenue decline. My theory is that mainframe software sales are proportionally higher for BMC than CA. Then again, CA could be gaining share and executing better.
What's everyone else think? |
