<font color=red> Oct. 5, 2000 COMPLETE CNC NEWS ,COMMENTS AND REVIEW
" All gaps must be filled " say our technical analyst
brothers.
CNC had a gap at 6.5 when it broke out.
We sitting right there now:
stockcharts.com[M,A]DACLYYMY[PB10!B20!B30!B50!B200][VC60][IUB14!LA12,26,9!LC20!LF!LG!LI14,3!LH14,3!LL14!LM12]
The Chaikin Money Flow ( CMF ) has just turned positive/ Green
( third chart panel from top )
stockcharts.com[M,A]WACLYYMY[PB10!B20!B30!B50!B200][VC60][IUB14!LA12,26,9!LC20!LF!LG!LI14,3!LH14,3!LL14!LM12
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
iben_there from YHOO covers from the 9-27-2000 - 8k SEC filing
what changes are programmed to come in the insurance subsidiaries.
as outlined in the CNC "Restoration Plan" in outline terms:
Looks very good
messages.yahoo.com
From 9-27-2000 - 8k SEC filing
-----------------------------------------------------------
o Aggressive expense management and staff reductions
o Review of operating process to improve productivity
o Focus on most profitable products - add to product offerings where appropriate
o Target revenue growth of 5 - 6% per year
Projected Insurance Operating Results - GAAP Basis
-------------------------------------------------------
$'s in Millions
. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . 2000 . . . . . . 2001 . . . . . . 2002 . . . . . . 2003 . . . . . . 2004
. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . ------- . . . . . .------ . . . . . .------ . . . . . .------ . . . . . .------
Revenue
Insur, policy income .. $ 3,291.8 . . $ 3,446.6 . . $ 3,672.8 . . $ 3,866.8 . . $ 4,164.5
($ 3,149.3 in 1999)
Net investment income .. 1,809.3 . .. . 1,818.5 . .. . 1,863.1 . .. . 1,940.1 . . . 2,091.5
($1,819.5 in 1999)
Other income . . . . . .. . . . . . .1.2
. . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . ----------- . . --------- . . ---------- . . ----------- . . ---------
. . . . . .Total revenue .. $ 5,102.3 . . $ 5,265.1 . . $ 5,535.9 . . $ 5,806.9 . . $ 6,256.0
($ 4,968.8 in 1999). . . ====== . . ======= . . ====== . . ======= . .=======
Cash to Parent . . . .. . . . $ 450.0 . .. . $ 450.0 . .. . $ 475.0 . .. . $ 510.0 . . . $ 510.0
($ 361.8 in 1999) . .. . . ====== . . . ====== . . . ====== . . .====== . .. ======
Note: Projections exclude major medical.
By iben_there
*************************************************
( NOTE: My personal belief is that Major Medical may
turn out to be a winning Insurance Division.
ALL HOSPITAL & related STOCKS are SKYROCKETING right now!! My favorite, HRC:
stockcharts.com[M,A]WACLYYMY[PB10!B20!B30!B50!B200][VC60][IUB14!LA12,26,9!LC20!LF!LG!LI14,3!LH14,3!LL14!LM12]
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
I will have a new section on Manufactured Housing and Mobil Homes.
Sept.12/PRNews:Manufactured Homes Sales Growth Strong
dowjones.work.com
Oct.3,2000 BARRON'S :" Bullish Manufactured Housing " Green point ".
ie: Predictions of the death of manufactured housing
where premature:
Message 14513475
TA
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CNC NEWS, REVIEW, FUNDAMENTAL DATA AND COOL LINKS
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R E S O U R C E S :
NICE site to get IMMEDIATE NEWS FROM DOWJONES
============================================
quicken.excite.com
V AL I D E A.com
==================
Interesting site to get many previous articles and reports, rumors etc
validea.com
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
MAJOR RECENT ARTICLES ON CNC
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10-4-00: The Street.Com:#1 CNC Critic, Peter Eavis , NOW admits he screwed up his
projections of CNC’s earnings. He states:
” It now appears that our tax treatment of the projected cash flows was incorrect.”
thestreet.com
ragingbull.altavista.com
3-Oct-00 : Merrill Lynch –“ financial stability is less of an issue.”
Maintains Neutral Outlook.
Message 14501552
Oct. 3, 2000 (Bloomberg) Conseco Shares Tumble Amid Investor Concern About Debt and earnings
quote.bloomberg.com
ragingbull.altavista.com
September 29 CNC writes An Open Memo to Conseco Shareholders and Other Interested Parties about Shorts Misinforming On CNC EPS:
biz.yahoo.com
ragingbull.altavista.com
Sept. 25 (Bloomberg): Conseco's Wendt Says He Expects Debt Rating Upgrade 'Shortly'
messages.yahoo.com
Sept. 25 BW: A.M. Best Affirms B++ Rating of Conseco Life Subsidiaries
siliconinvestor.com
Message 14449876
Sep 25, 2000 (BUSINESS WIRE) :Fitch Comments on Conseco's Bank Agreement
Rating Reviews Continue
siliconinvestor.com
Message 14450072
Sept;23, 2000:Indianapolis Star Starnews.com:Conseco, lendser OK debt..
messages.yahoo.com
Business Wire: Friday September 22, 5:50 pm
Conseco `Restoration Plan' Moves Forward
biz.yahoo.com
Message 14440157
Friday, September 22, 2000 05:46 PMConseco, Banks Agree To Restructure $2.8B In Debt
quicken.excite.com
Friday September 22
Conseco prices $300 million asset-backed offering
biz.yahoo.com
Sept. 19, 2000 Dow Jones Newswires
Conseco Expected To Offer $300 Mln Home Improvement Debt
messages.yahoo.com
. 9/14/00 :Conseco Reaches Agreement With Lehman Brothers on Finance Unit
messages.yahoo.com
9/14/00 -A. M. Best via COMTEX
Conseco Cleared to Use 'Upstream' Cash for Debt Repayment
messages.yahoo.com
08-31-00 (BUSINESS WIRE)--Conseco, Inc. announced today an agreement with Chase Manhattan Bank and Bank of America to extend to Sept. 22, 2000, $155 million in loans to Conseco.
news.morningstar.com
Aug. 30 Bloomberg Conseco Shares Gain as Bank Debt Rescheduling Pact Expected
By Dan Lonkevich
ragingbull.altavista.com
Aug.29,2000: The StreetCom
Conseco Near a Deal to Extend Loans
Message 14298004
Aug. 17,2000: Business Wire: Wendt Battles Shorts
Message 14227830
.Aug.15,2000: 1) Lehman Is Latest Hurdle For Conseco's Recovery
Message 14214595
Aug.15,2000: Conseco Still Negotiating Debt Maturity With Lenders
Message 14214598
..Aug. 14,2000: FITCH TO UPGRADE COMSECO?? Because it is
over collateralized?
Message 14212528
. Aug 9 (Reuters) - Conseco Finance, fixed final terms for its 2000-4 series $1.2 billion
nine-tranche asset-backed bond launched on August 4.
Rating Aaa/AAA/AAA
ragingbull.altavista.com
.
Aug. 9,2000: A consortium of eight insurance companies has completed a $40.5 million investment in
affordable-housing projects across the state, the first test of an effort to get insurers
to voluntarily invest in community development.
ragingbull.altavista.com
.Aug. 4, 2000: Conseco prices senior classes of $1.2 bln ABS deal favorably
ragingbull.altavista.com
.Aug. 4, 2000:Conseco Capital Management Names New Co-Portfolio Managers
for Conseco High Yield Fund
Conseco Promotes From Within After High-Yield Exodus
ragingbull.altavista.com
.
.7/27/00 BUSINESS WIRE:
CONSECO Announces Restructuring Program ,Parts I, II, III & IV , from RB
ragingbull.altavista.com
.http://www.quicken.com/investments/news/story/bw/?story=/news/stories/bw/20000727/a2620.htm&symbol=CNC
. DOW JONES NEWSWIRE 7/27/00:COMPLETE EPS REPORT
1: dowjones.work.com
2: dowjones.work.com
3: dowjones.work.com
7/24/00 BLOOMBERG: WENDT GETS RID OF LEOPARD CHAIR AND .......PROTECTS SHAREHOLDER EQUITY:
quote.bloomberg.com
.
7/19/2000 WENDT HIRES Ex-GE CRISIS TEAM
biz.yahoo.com
. 7/12/2000 20 MILLION PAID TO HIRE WENDT
Wendt gets 45 mill less than if he had stayed at the Golf Course and got paid by GE to non - compete and do nothing. GE gets 10 mill CNC shares,
will make another killing.
.
messages.yahoo.com
.
8/21/00:CONSECO INVESTOR RELATIONS SAYS:
Mr. Wendt paid the taxes on the bonus. His bonus was not grossed up. He received $45 million before taxes.
messages.yahoo.com
6/30/2000 WENDT BACK FROM HONEYMOON messages.yahoo.com
WHO IS GARY WENDT
**********************************************.
W E N D T the person
========================
Aug. 7, 2000 :BUSINESS WEEK
ragingbull.altavista.com
My comments on Business Week Article: Music Music Music..
Message 14127197
1997 FORBES/GECAPITAL: " BLOWING BUBBLES "
forbes.com
July 5, 2000: REVIEW OF GARY WELCH LIFE AND ARTICLES
Message 13993832
July 10, 2000: W S J : GE Capital’s Wendt: " A BRUTAL NEGOTIATOR "
Message 14023303
FORBES: GE faces future without Welch:
forbes.com
They should have said Wendt since he was responsible for 36% of it’s income:
”After dominating the old economy, Welch embraced the new one, shifting GE away from its manufacturing roots and toward services like GE Capital, which now account for most of its business (GE had revenue of $110.8 billion and net income of $10.7 billion in 1999). ”
WENDT'S PAST PERFORMANCE
He run GECapital, GE’s most profitable part for 13 years.
Ge’s Engine for Growth “.
forbes.com
Thus, he was responsible for 38% of GE's net income 1990-1998
As GE’s profit came increasingly from Financial Services
businessweek.com
How he compares with the giants:
quicken.com
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FUNDAMENTAL DATA AND COOL LINKS
=================================
CNC Balance Sheet
=================
conseco.com
FUNDAMENTALS
===================
quotes.nasdaq.com
9-2-00 Morningstar Quicktake® Report
Business Appraiser:
=======================
quicktake.morningstar.com
C H A R T S
================
Stockcharts:
stockcharts.com[M,A]DACLYYMY[PB10!B20!B30!B50!B200][VC60][IUB14!LA12,26,9!LC20!LF!LG!LI14,3!LH14,3!LL14!LM12]
stockcharts.com
. Interactive Point and Figure charting for CNC
( allow it to load and then play with right lower sidebar till you get
green xxx’s pointing to $10 ).
stockcharts.com
.
CNC Restructuring Program.com
=========================
quicken.com
Earnings Growth @ MSN MONEY CENTRAL
=====================================
ragingbull.altavista.com
.Earnings Estimates
=================
Silicon Investor
Message 14250661
NASDAQ-Info-Quote
earnings.nasdaq-amex.com
BLOOMBERG Earnings Growth Estimates :
quote.bloomberg.com
PREFERRED STOCK & BONDS
============================
finance.yahoo.com
Money Flow Data
by Softechie
Money flow stats 12/1/99-10/2/00 in 1/8 range.
Message 14501970
..
***************************************************
VARIOUS CNC INVESTORS & BROKER RATINGS
****************************************************
Sept. 8, 2000: NASDQAQ InfoQuote has 2 Buys, 2 Strong Buys and 9 holds.
That’s up from prior 4 weeks where they had
LEH & ING only , as Accumulate:
earnings.nasdaq-amex.com
8/10/2000Gary Smith from REALMONEY.COM at The StreetCom
puts a buy on CNC with a stop at 7.
Anyway, here are a few charts to look at as you sip your morning Cafe Yukon:
thestreet.com
ragingbull.altavista.com
thestreet.com
Sept 8, 2000:Flag Investors Value Fund
. flaginvestors.com
messages.yahoo.com
Aug. 29, 2000:DLJ has a big position in CNC as of 6-30-2000 and
is UP 429% from previous Q.
insidertrader.com
GABELLI FUND UP 23% has 9% of position in CNC:
messages.yahoo.com
GABELLI FUND UP 23% has 9% of position in CNC:
messages.yahoo.com
Comments on Gabelli by YHOO poster tired_of_drivel
messages.yahoo.com
messages.yahoo.com
messages.yahoo.com
PROFIT VALUE FUND: 4 star Morningstar rating.
In last 3 months has added new position in Conseco,
to make in 8th largest position;
position similar in size to its holding in Berkshire.
messages.yahoo.com
.9-2-00 Morningstar Quicktake® Report
quicktake.morningstar.com
Major Fund Owners
quicktake.morningstar.com
.
8/15/00 Bloomberg: Novell, Conseco Are Among the True Stock Bargains: J. Dorfman
cnetinvestor.com
Message 14220318
8/5/00 S & P raises Outlook to highest, 5 ( on scale 1 to 5 )
messages.yahoo.com
7/30/00 STANDARD AND POOR UPGRADES CNC TO 4 STARS FROM 3 STARS
Message 14133330
Maintains: Accumulate: messages.yahoo.com
OCT. 3 , 2000: Merrill Lynch Maintains Neutral
same as before ( see below ) but now with “ LESS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE FUTURE “
Message 14501552
7/31/00 Merrill Lynch Maintains Neutral
messages.yahoo.com
10-2-00: Solomon Smith Barney: Maintains Neutral/High Risk
Colin Devine has always been bearish on CNC .
Message 14500598
7/26/00 LEHMAN MAINTAINS OUTPERORM II ON CNC Message 14109720
*************************************************
.
OVERVIEW of CONSECO INSURANCE RATINGS
conseco.com
.
***********************************************************
RATING AGENCIES , MOODY’S, S & P etc
************************************************************
Oct. 3, 2000: Irwin Jacobs comments on rating Agencies outlook:
irwinljacobs.com
Sept. 25 (Bloomberg): Conseco's Wendt Says He Expects Debt Rating Upgrade 'Shortly'
messages.yahoo.com
A.M. Best
============
. Sept. 25 BW: A.M. Best Affirms B++ Rating of Conseco Life Subsidiaries
siliconinvestor.com
Message 14449876
.FITCH
Sep 25, 2000 (BUSINESS WIRE) :Fitch Comments on Conseco's Bank Agreement
Rating Reviews Continue
siliconinvestor.com
Message 14450072
Aug. 14,2000: FITCH TO UPGRADE CONSECO?? Because it is
overcollateralized?
Message 14212528
Aug. 11. 2000:Conseco 2000-4 $1.2B Manufactured Hsg Contract P-T Rtd By Fitch
Message 14200638
.
biz.yahoo.com
.
Aug. 11, 2000: Fitch Downgrades Conseco Rtgs
biz.yahoo.com
Message 14200576
S & P
.===============
www2.marketwatch.com
ragingbull.altavista.com
S&P cuts Conseco Fin status
Aug. 8, 2000--3:18 pm - By Chris Kraeuter
Conseco Finance's credit rating status was revised to "negative" from "developing" by Standard & Poor's.
ragingbull.altavista.com
Comment from RB poster on above S & P reports:
messages.yahoo.com
8/9/00 1:58:00 PM : Business WireS&P Places Various Green Tree Cert Rtgs on Watch Neg
The revision in the CreditWatch status reflects the increasing likelihood that
Conseco Finance will not be sold to a higher-rated entity in the foreseeable future.
ragingbull.altavista.com
Comment from RB poster on above S & P reports:
.MOODY'S
=======================
quote.bloomberg.com
. " While Moody's said it expects the company and its bank lenders to reach a satisfactory agreement,
it said the details of such an agreement and the effects on Conseco's operations remain uncertain.
moodys.com
New York, June 30, 2000 -- Moody's Investors Service has downgraded the credit ratings of
Conseco, Inc. and its affiliates (senior debt rating to Ba3 from Ba1).
moodys.com
New York, April 20, 2000 -- Moody's Investors Service lowered the senior
unsecured debt ratings of Conseco, Inc. and Conseco Finance to Ba1 from Baa3.
.
MORNINGSTAR/FINANCIAL
============================
messages.yahoo.com
Morningstar grades CNC a B-, for financial health, just slightly below average
for insurance industry and average for universe of stocks.
.
.
DALBAR Insurance Rating Web site
================================
Part 1
messages.yahoo.com
Part 2
messages.yahoo.com
***************************************************
MANUFACTURED HOUSING
***************************************************
Sept.12/PRNews:Manufactured Homes Sales Growth Strong
dowjones.work.com
Oct.3,2000 BARRON'S :" Bullish Manufactured Housing " Green point ".
ie: Predictions of the death of manufactured housing
where premature:
Message 14513475
VARIOUS OTHER ISSUES IN CNC:
.
.**********************************************
ISSUE OF PRODUCING A GIANT SHORT SQUEEZE:
================================================
MOST RECENT
=================
8-29-00The Original PAC-MAN Short_Squeeze Strategy remains intact and in force
Silicon Investor version
Message 14284021
RB Version
ragingbull.altavista.com
First, to effect a short squeeze in CNC and see a giant squirt
of cash upwards in your CNC stock:
a) ask your broker to put the stock certificate
out of Street name, and in YOUR name or
b) simply ask him to restrict it, ie you don't want to have it
loaned out for shorting.
8-29: ANATOMY of A Short Squeeze
Message 14330070
8-28 Cramer:The Street Com:
Buy-In Blues
. thestreet.com
8-21-00: StreeetCom.com:
What Happens When Short-Selling Goes Bad
thestreet.com
biz.yahoo.com
Message 14247932
Aug: 11, 2000:REUTERS: "Liquidator" Jacobs bets on insurer's turnaround
biz.yahoo.com
Message 14172703
CNC in WORTH Magazine via Maverick Capital's Hedge Fund Manager - Lee Ainslie.
Ainslie is a noted short seller who has averaged 24.8% after fees with $5B under management.
He has covered his CNC position: I am not going to go
Against somebody of Wendt’s reputation
.
8-1-00 Star Tribune: Neal St. Anthony/On Business:
Jacobs roars, short sellers yawn
startribune.com
. 7/31/00 J.J. CRAMER FROM TheStreetCom editorializes: A great Idea !!!
ragingbull.altavista.com
7/27/00 IRWIN JACOBS WANTS TO PRODUCE A SHORT SQUEEZE.
.
He puts this Ad in Wall StJ. then other papers
messages.yahoo.com
streetmonkey.com
September 13, 2000 Dow Jones Newswires
Irwin Jacobs Takes Crusade Vs Conseco Shorts Online
interactive.wsj.com
And puts his web site up
irwinljacobs.com
IRWIN JACOBS PICTURE : interactive.wsj.com
Angling for Tie-Ins, Irwin Jacobs Took Up Big-Time Bass Fishing
interactive.wsj.com
Message 14204449
===============================
CURRENT SHORT INTEREST
============================
SHORT INTEREST
8-22-00 Wall Street Journal
ragingbull.altavista.com
Short Interest According to this web site:
trading-ideas.com
Shorting Rules
ragingbull.altavista.com
BOOKS ON SHORTING
========================
(We encourage would be shorts to read these
and go ahead short some more and make
Mr.Wendt¡¦s Day when the big squeezarooo comes along).
capatcolumbia.com
CNC SHORT_SQUEEZE AMUSEMENT PARK:
Message 14445597
**********************************************
7/22/2000 ISSUE OF CNC BANKRUPTCY
AND of DILUTION of SHAREHOLDER EQUITY
**********************************************
.Part I messages.yahoo.com.
Part II messages.yahoo.com.
messages.yahoo.com.
. 7/28/00 :ISSUE of FABER CNBC REPORT & CONTROVERSY
====================================================
.( ie that Wendt is going to dilute shareholder equity ?).
ragingbull.altavista.com
.7/29/00 reply by ta to FABER Report: CNBC FABER is either LYING or MISINFORMED
messages.yahoo.com
. 7/24/00 Cnet : ''We're not going to be diluting shareholder value at ridiculously low prices,'' Wendt said.
cnetinvestor.com
messages.yahoo.com
7/31/00 FABER CORRECTS HIMSELF:
" CNC WILL N O T ISSUE ANY N E W EQUITY ".
.http://boards.cnbc.com/jetson/message.asp?forumid=1695&messageid=459074&threadid=459074
Thank you Mr. FABER.
.
**********************************************
ISSUE OF MR.T.LEE'S PREFERRED STOCK
=========================================
Aug.16:RBull: by Normal_Deviate
ragingbull.altavista.com
Aug.16:RBull: by NJ-Gator:
ragingbull.altavista.com
messages.yahoo.com
messages.yahoo.com
ISSUE of VALUE of PREFERRED STOCK
======================================
messages.yahoo.com
.NEGATIVE ARTICLES ON CNC
**********************************************
8/17/00 The StreetCom: Good News with a BAD Spin
which StreetCom specializes in:
Message 14230638
7/27/00 TheStreetCom: Herb's Hotline: Oversight by Conseco?
thestreet.com
7/10/00 TheStreetCom: Conseco Sets Rich Pay Package for New CEO, By Peter Eavis
Message 14023449
7/11/00 Herb's Hotline: Will These Conseco Capers Never Cease?
By Herb Greenberg
thestreet.com
7/14/00 Bloomberg :Conseco Outdoes Itself in Piling Gifts on Wendt:
by Graef Crystal
ragingbull.altavista.com
7/31/00 Warburg initiates coverage with hold;
messages.yahoo.com
7/31/00WSJ Colin Devine from Smith Barney is worried about CNC
messages.yahoo.com
messages.yahoo.com
BUT!!!September 1, 2000 smartmoney.com. Denounces Colin Devine as
being Wrong :
Message 14322877
***********************************************
.
<MISCELLANEOUS
.
***********************************************
.Why Wendt took job at CNC
============================
Sept.5,2000: YHOO poster Corporate_Barbarian’s post is still a classic, on why Wendt took the job at CNC: He stands to make a GIANT amount of money when he gets CNC up to $30.
messages.yahoo.com
Same by paulthebigfinn
messages.yahoo.com
Details of Pay package are in Form 8-K ( see Edgar ):
messages.yahoo.com
********************************************************
WHY I INVEST IN CONSECO
ragingbull.altavista.com
CNC Disclaimer for Dummies :
=========================
" Be careful: Investing has been compared to gambling.
Thus as in Las Vegas,
investing in CONSECO could cause you to loose your wallet,
your car and trailer, plane tickets, Bank Account, house,
wife and job and you can become crippled and die. ".
Let the buyer beware!!!!!!
More Info From Uncle Sam, cradle to grave care and handholding here:
sec.gov
sec.gov
How Market makers Manipulate YOU
otcnn.com
And how to SPOT SHORTS and Similar STOCK-BASHERS:
ragingbull.altavista.com
This Piece was made possible by the TA CNC Shorts-Crushing Machine:
The Bandwidth-Hogger, CNC Short Lumbar Spine Blower
Lamborghini Diablo:
post.messages.yahoo.com
Note: If you click on my last post it will take you to my
very first post 2 months ago.
TA |
