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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 315.93-0.8%9:38 AM EST
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To: Dale Knipschield who wrote (37896)10/5/2000 1:44:59 PM
From: Proud_Infidel  Read Replies (1) of 70976
 
Dale,

I am not one prone to believe in conspiracy theories and I am not saying the following is true; it's just something to think about.

Current market valuations place the entire SCE sector below that of CSCO alone. These are highly visible technology companies, yet can be moved by far less in dollar terms. Add to that fact that you have a cyclical sector with people scrambling for the exits at the first signs of a slowdown, and you will have people trying to take advantage of that for themselves. Several years ago, the Book to Bill ratio for semiconductors was done away with and replaced with Worldwide Sales number; the BTB was an indication of future growth while the current Sales numbers look only at historical numbers. This only has added to the low visibility of the sector and has given people with high visibility the ability to move markets so to speak.

Neither JDSU not CSCO nor any fiber optic name can grow without AMAT; yet we see little evidence of analysts putting out the word on the chips needed by the broadband, wireless, and internet part of the SCE sector, which is by far the fastest growing part.

One more thing to add. If analysts are not doing the above scenario, that would be fine. But when you have an entire group of "professionals" who misses a big move such as '99 and has fear at their disposal, would they always refuse to use their trump card and bring the sector back to where they could hop on board? I am not so sure.

Just some thoughts,

Brian
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