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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA
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To: J.T. who started this subject10/5/2000 5:59:17 PM
From: David Lee Smith  Read Replies (1) of 19219
 
Dell and GAP warnings muted the upside potential today. The MomentuMonkey Indicator is still positive, but the valuation part of the mix went neutral. The market could get dicy here. The US dollar index increased, but the technical position suggests a bear market rally ready to collapse soon. (I have a muted collapse factored in my model, but not a full scale one). I would think the most likely scenario is the market rallies to 1465-85 then the dollar collapses and breaks the sideways trend of interest rates to the upside. If that happens, it should put downward pressure on stocks. The MomentuMonkey Indicator should go back to a sell position before the market collapses. On the other hand, if the US dollar remains strong and interest rates decline, the MomentuMonkey indicator will get stronger and up its upside target accordingly. At this point, I'm trusting the indicator. When it went Neutral last week, I covered my Ultra-Bear Pro Funds with a beautiful profit. I then bought positons in TGP at $26.50 and ECJ at $70.75. Both positions are long and profitable. I wouldn't be short here and would look to be long with either close stop-losses or be ready to rapidly change gears in a heart-beat. My intuition tells me most people are too bearish, tax selling is factored in and the dollar will not collapse until after the November election. That would lead to a nice rally through year-end.

But who knows...thats what makes a market.

Best wishes,

MomentuMonkey
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