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Non-Tech : Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, Inc. (KKD)
KKD 21.000.0%Aug 4 5:00 PM EST
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To: Jon Koplik who wrote (560)10/6/2000 1:55:14 AM
From: TimF  Read Replies (1) of 1001
 
Jon, AMD right now can produce more high speed chips then Intel, by some accounts much more. You point out that other leaders in tech fields have gone down. Intel would be very hard to take down and I don't think its going to happen however I am pretty sure that they will lose market share.

KREM may crush Dunkin Donuts, but to me it looks like there stock price allready assumes that they probably will.
KREM can gain market share but is there industry as a whole growing?

AMAT sure they could possibly go down, but now they are growing faster then KREM (as is AMD).

High tech is a somewhat dangerous business but so is food service. If KREM can crush Dunkin then someone can crush KREM. Also semi-conductors and semi-conductor equipment are industries with good long term growth trends that I think will continue for a long time. Do you think the "donut industry" will grow rapidly?

I'm not saying KREM could not possibly earn you a bunch of money because 1 - markets can be somewhat irrational, and 2 - KREM could possibly become the dominent donut company, and if it is assumed that it will then its market valuation would not be outrageous. But the market valuation assumes it will become THE leader in its field and that it will do so in only a few years. Perfection in execution is pretty much all ready tied into KREMs price.

Tim
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