Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)

AMD 249.66

+7.6%

3:59 PM EST

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To: kash johal who wrote (11903)	10/6/2000 9:50:39 PM
From: Charles R	Read Replies (1) of 275872

Kash, <Perhaps the smart money is figuring that a rambus lawsuit is inevitable.> I am not sure it takes smart money to figure this one out. Ignoring pie-in-the-sky stuff there are basically 2 ways Rambus can make money - DRAM royalties and controller royalties. The DRAM guys have either settled or in lawsuits so the next in line are controller guys. There are only 3 controller companies that are worth collecting royalties from Rambus perspective - Intel, VIA, AMD - probably in that order. So, sooner or later Rambus has to come to AMD. <In which case AMD stock gets dumped big-time.> Why? What is the significant downside to AMD? <Everybody who has sued Rambus has gotten burned.> I am curious as to why you say this. What do you have in mind? <Surely this is a big black cloud hanging over the stock.> Again, why? The cloud, from my perspective seems to be the concern about health of PC industry and the concern about overcapacity leading to price war. With good earnings and proper guidance (not sure Jerry can pull off the second one) things should start looking up soon. <And rambus will likely strike when the DDR shows up.> Firstly, I am not sure if there is any jeopardy for AMD here. The Japanese have some sort of agreement (at least near term) with Rambus and should be able to supply DDR even if Micron or some of the other back off due to Rambus threat (and I don't expect them to.). What do you see differently? <May explain why smart money is not backing the truck up at these prices.> If you ask me it is dumb money that is getting out at these prices. AMD will have solid earnings this quarter (mid-70s at the minimum even if K6s comeup really short). Q4 is shaping-up to be a dramatic quarter for AMD so I expect good guidance (unless of course there has been some trouble on the infrastructure side we are not aware of. Chuck

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