If CMTN is not missing their quarter here (which they are not), why has the stock gone from 100-125 to 30? Because some (much, all?..hard to say) of future slowing you mentioned is ALREADY priced into the stock....As your post would have it, if CMTN comes out and says "growth is slowing" in their CC..then it is a new ballgame and the stock takes another hit (after already being down 80%).....as you would say, the stock chart is already telling you that (the market has anticipated this)...CMTN is going to have to come out with some just God-awful news to keep the momentum going down....
I guess one can quibble about technical definition for what constitutes a bear...but this is certainly a bear for the Naz..nothing of this severity or duration since 74...
Re: 2700-2800...I suppose anything is possible, but if you looked at who warned this quarter in technology....it was primarily the same old guys (2nd and 3rd tier companies getting beat up by whoever is dominating their space), and Intel (however, PC's are clearly becoming just another peripherial, albeit a high-selling one, in the new scheme of things)...
Speculation about slowing semi sales, slowing telecom spending, etc....is just that (yet), speculation...and if there is a slowdown, it looks like 2nd/3rd tier guys will bear the brunt of it.....Overall, the fundamentals for technology remain strong...I agree with Rarebird that this is mostly fear (of the unknown), and the Known is starting this next week...and the KNOWN will be good.
All the other reasons mentioned (Euro, energy, etc) are temporal, and can/will quickly turn..they do not hold down a market long....
There will never be enough fear/capitulation etc. for those negative on the market to properly call a bottom. As we hit the lows in May, many analysts were claiming there still wasn't enough fear, etc...to mark a bottom, and we needed to go still lower, and yet we rallied hard. Who know what the week will bring, but personally, I think we are close, real close....Monday makes sense as something, at least short-term, climatic... |
