Hi ciVic, congratulations on your thread !
Lots of visitors here I recognize.
If you're into T/A, there's a guy on another thread who does some really great work. His alias is Magnatizer.
Message 14524397
It sure is tough making predictions in this market isn't it ? Even though my gut feel was that Oct would have a selling bias, I thought the bounce off of 3600 was bottom, since it bounced of off a nice medium term trendline. I even bought INSP just under 30, lol. (hint: I WAS WRONG !!) IMO, this latest dive means that there is a major portfolio allocation shift occurring. That shift is a reduced weighting in tech stocks until economic conditions are favorable to tech growth. So we could go lower until economic conditions are such that the FED feels it can lower rates without stimulating inflation.
The NASDAQ sure looks oversold, doesn't it ?
siliconinvestor.com
But now look at it with a WEEKLY chart:
siliconinvestor.com
Uh oh, lololol !!!! I'm pretty sure this week we broke through the trend line represented by the Oct 1999 low and the May 200 low. So I guess everyone will be looking for another trendline for support. Maybe when Williams%R starts approaching 50 ....
T/A is very helpful, but IMO T/A didn't predict NASDAQ 5000+ in March, IMO, it was saying "overbought" around 4300. The other problem is that EVERYONE is using T/A and money flow and so on as part of their investing decisions. So you get situations like we've seen this summer (bounces above the support lines, since the consensus was that the support lines would hold) until, enough people decide to "break ranks". We are sort of in this situation now.
Hopefully Nov - Jan will be a little more fun !
Regards,
Chris |
