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Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here

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To: Hiram Walker who wrote (909)5/22/1997 9:44:00 AM
From: WTC   of 12823
 
Tim, we are talking past one another again. My point was about a non-coax-based network company building a HFC network to allow it to bring me-too capability competition to the local MSOs. USWEST/New Media is a different animal altogether -- it is a cable company that is upgrading its plant (or at least announcing intentions to do so.) Continental Cable is the INCUMBANT cable company, upgrading as a defensive strategy and to produce new revenue. Notice that the press release never claimed profitibility even in this situation -- it just identifed where the intra-corporate subsidy would come from!

My point is that a LEC building an all new HFC network in the same market as NewMedia would at best reasonably expect to take half of the broadband services market from NewMedia over time. Building a network infrastructure at several hundred dollars per home passed and then ramping service revenues over years from 10% to 40% penetration makes the network costs look like several thousand dollars per sub in the early years and a few thousand dollars per sub in the later years. That is a very hard economic nut to crack with average revenues in the $40 - $60 per subscriber range.

Writing press releases announcing multibillion dollar capital expenditure plans neither gets the money actually spent nor does it make the underlying business proposition any more attractive. I'll wait for more shoes to drop on this announcement. I will grant you that this is a deeper-pocket proposition than most cable rebuilds.
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