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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation

CRSP 57.28

+0.7%

11:36 AM EST

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To: nigel bates who wrote (1806)	10/7/2000 2:25:41 PM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (2) of 52153

Nig, Am I missing something here ? Yes, you didn't factor in the anti-INCY bias among analysts. <g> Never really understood the origins of this, but it's clearly there. There are an awful lot of players in the SNP space, and I'm still not clear on their business model. (And I suspect they themselves aren't clear on it either). On another issue raised by the extract, a skeptic could even quarrel with the whole "individualized toxicology" notion. Let's say we can in fact identify the individuals that are at risk from a particular drug. Would the FDA approve a non-breakthrough drug on this basis? I have my doubts that they would in the current environment. The problem is that some doctors are going to screw up, or someone is going to give their drug to a relative/friend to use. (Something like this issue is happening now with the acne drug Accutane that causes birth defects if taken by pregnant women). A doctor I know told me that a key issue in deciding what drug to use is the hassle factor - does the patient call back complaining about side effects or needing frequent dosage adjustments. Waiting for the result of a SNP analysis of the patient before deciding on a drug or dosage may fall into the same class. Of course if it's a one-time test, the results get stored in the patient's record and then a computer program advises on the drug/dosage, maybe it would work. Not going to happen quickly, though. Peter

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