Sctgg, I fear I have to disagree with Larry's analysis. Since 1985, more often than not Naz reactions were held well above the then prevailing 52 weeks low. This including the 85 and 86 reactions, the late 89 early 90 reaction, as well as the 92, 96, 97 and 98 reactions. Only in 94 was the reaction really stopped at the 52 weeks low. Actually, when we get real bear moves, more often than not, the Naz will go into an extended period of breaching the 52 weeks lows such as in 87, 90 and even in late 1999. As to the question are we going straight down to the mid 2500 or not, I'll have to see how much "pessimism" is building up. So far during this September decline, we had only one day in which the Naz tic was worse than -1100 (and the NYSE none), not a lot of capitulation yet (we had more negative readings than that by a lot in the late May decline). Personally I expect Monday and/or Tuesday to generate such numbers, and thus mark a local bottom there, but until I see such extremes, I am still very cautious.
Zeev |
