Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)

AMD 262.33

+3.4%

9:49 AM EST

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To: ajbrenner who wrote (12016)	10/7/2000 10:31:59 PM
From: Maverick	Read Replies (2) of 275872

HQ:Q3 Rev $1.2B, EPS $0.62 The lower the bar, the easier AMD can beat est. 9/22/00 1999 A 2000 E 2001 E Q1 EPS $(0.41) $0.57A $0.59 Q2 EPS (0.55) 0.61A 0.61 Q3 EPS (0.36) 0.62 0.69 Q4 EPS 0.22 0.70 0.86 FY EPS (1.10) 2.50 2.75 FY REVS (M) 2,858 4,859 6,014 CY EPS (1.10) 2.50 2.75 CY P/E NM 9.6 8.7 AMD: Reducing Our Rating to Market Perform; Lowering Price Target to $35 * While we believe that AMD's quarter is intact, in terms of meeting our top line and EPS numbers of $1.2B and $0.62 respectively, we believe that due to Intel's shortfall and the fact that Intel (INTC, $48, MP) is the bellwether in the industry and the largest supplier of MPUs, AMD's stock will continue to be under pressure in the short term. * Our recent channel checks within the industry show that the company is already beginning to see an upswing in demand due to the Christmas holiday season. We are concerned though, that if PC sales do slowdown below our forecast of approximately 15-17%, there could be a meaningful inventory overhang in the system where we believe Intel will try to gain more marketshare at AMD's expense. * We are lowering our rating on AMD from a STRONG BUY to a Market Perform and our price target from $75 to $35 but we will revisit both our rating and our price target once we get better clarity on the dynamics of the MPU market.

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