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Strategies & Market Trends : Arbitrage Plays
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To: Allen Furlan who wrote (256)10/7/2000 11:44:56 PM
From: Paul Senior  Read Replies (2) of 376
 
Allen, TGP looks good to me. PCL has come down and has brought TGP down also (imo). But now that PCL yields almost 10% that ought to - in my opinion anyway - diminish the downside to both PCL and TGP. And the deal looks (to me) like it will get done.

With the way TGP seems to fluctuate, if I wait a bit now maybe I can find a little lower entry price point for my TGP buy.

re: BOCB. Thanks again for bringing that one to the thread. It's worked out very well (for me and I hope for others here as well) - as you suggested it might.

re CG. I'm still considering my options. Thanks for your updated analysis. I just may add more. Whereas in a previous post I was concerned with which alternative to choose - I now believe I would go with the all stock election (which I realize is "proratable" given the 30% aggregate outstanding shares criterion). However, there is another alternative. Which is to elect nothing, but just sell CG on the open market the very last day of trading. From what I've seen with other closures, this last day often brings the stock to the calculated fair value of the buyout offer. In other words, assuming I'm alert enough to sell on the last trading day, I might exit the position at very close to the maximum point that sharp investors have finally priced CG for the discounted value of the sails and the NiSource stock price at that time.
Another consideration exists too - I've been assuming I would want to close my position. (This is the Arbitrage Thread!). With the way NI's been trading lately though - it looks like just holding on to NI shares for a while might be a profitable idea.

Paul
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