Quehubo007,
"rub our hands in glee"? Yes indeed, especially if one is a snow/winter sports fan and an oil/ng investor.
It's interesting isn't it that after some cold weather shows up, all of a sudden the media discovers that ENSO neutral winters can be COLD ones? An indication that was noted here
a couple weeks ago, I do believe (VBG), while at the time the overwhelming majority of winter forecasts, including the climate prediction center, were for a normal to slightly warmer than normal winter.
BTW, I noted in my weather forecast that it was a confirming factor if we had early snow in Pennsylvania. Looking back at my post, I could have been more clear. To be more precise, the earlier the snow, the less is required to meet my models forecast. This early in October, if we get a light flurry in my area, I would consider that a positive note. Any accumulation whatsoever in October would give me rather good confirmation of my forecast. Light accumulations in Nov would be acceptable also.
Bravo, bring it on, ggg:
weather.com
We just got back from a Fall Harvest Festival down in Adams county, southern tier of PA, where during the last two years on the same day I was sweating during unusually warm October temps. This year most folks were bundled up with coats and sweaters like it was mid/late November rather than early October. Just an anecdote, but it had me smiling all day. When I stick my neck out for a forecast it feels good to see it start to be confirmed.
Early in the week we had balmy weather in Niagara Falls and the Northern Adirondacks, La Nina's last gasp I was thinking. But it sure made for some nice vacation days.
Caveat, having just got back to home base I spent some time looking at charts. I don't know if I would put much faith into the weather helping out the energy sector yet. Later yes, but perhaps not in this market environment. Besides OSX and XOI, whose charts look like they may go into consolidation (excluding any market crashes) before their next move up, the rest of the charts look like CR*P. Just plain UGLY as SIN charts. DOW has broken its diamond formation to the downside and the 94 uptrendline. NDX is sitting at critical support which is going to HURT if it breaks it. SOX BTK IIX OEX, you name it, the only ones that look decent are energy and the CRB and I don't believe energy can stand alone if the rest play Submarine.
Securitytrader has so many skull and crossbone signs on their charts it looks like they are decorating for Halloween!
I'm mostly in gold stocks at the moment (with most positions from limit orders triggered the TH/FRI), but I am very aware of the possibility of taking a couple of good body shots, even in that beleagured sector, before a turn.
(Bottom picking while on vacation is tough, ggg)
A very risky market, nasty charts and moderate too complacent vix. Could add up to a Nasty week. There could be a countertrend rally, don't know if I'd put much faith in it.
Be careful out there,
Roebear |
