The 56 Point TA; Charts With an Attitude Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : The 56 Point TA; Charts With an Attitude

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To: ACAN who wrote (37275)	10/8/2000 3:13:05 AM
From: Doug R	Read Replies (3) of 79352

Allan, From a high of S&P 1553 there is the initial prospect of a bounce from approximately 10% "correction" levels. With this in mind, and with the JNPR chart in synch with the expectations of a weak bounce from S&P "correction" expectations: JNPR has a left shoulder, a head...and is now at lower levels of what would normally be seen as the start of a right shoulder. I wouldn't be surprised to see a technical bounce here for JNPR and lots of other oversold tech stocks. I would say that JNPR will be a good one to track as an overall market indicator from here. If it puts in a right shoulder, as the chart indicates it should, and rolls over into a hard neckline break, it'll go much lower than 150 and the DJIA will be in jeapordy of going to 8000 while the S&P would be targeted for 1100. All this gloom and doom here is very preliminary but more solid than the last 3 years of other "the sky is falling" pronouncements made all over the internet since the Big Kahuna thread began "predicting" a "crash" 3 years ago. The main preliminary aspect of a possible 3 year bear market rests on the fact that there has been 3 years of negative divergence in the 610 dCCI. That indicator has now run below the 0 line. It hasn't done that for many years. The downtrend on that indicator is undeniably persistent. Markets tend to be symetrical. 3 years down to the 0 line on the 610 CCI suggests 3 years of continuation downward. Since the suggested continuation downward would be at indicator values below 0, there isn't much to stand in the way of a prolonged bear market. Perceived global conditions would have to turn HARD on a dime very, very soon in order to cause an extended period of panic buying that would be obvious with VERY high volume. Markets really don't "turn on a dime" though. They turn in anticipation of that dime. Once the dime comes around...things like the break below 0 on the 610 dCCI happen. For practical purposes, that 0 line on the CCI IS the dime. A 3 year bear market is not set in stone though. It all depends on how much fear plays out and how fast that fear is developed. One would expect a decent bounce this coming week. How that bounce plays out will be critical. Doug R

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