Hi Sauky:
provocative question: whether Intel should be removed from the G&K Portfolio?
Uncle Frank, and the thread, will review this matter at the end of the year, and will likely compose the 2001 GKI based on the top 10 holdings near the end of 2000 for the thread. To determine this, the thread will likely call on that dope, Apollo, to conduct another semi-annual Portfolio Survey. I suspect Apollo will agree, and conduct this in November.
From last year to this, I've been watching Intel very closely, both because I had owned Rambus and Intel, and because it was a classic gorilla on whom few others were much posting. So I have been posting on it to keep the thread generally informed.
My views:
1. Intel has a good track record in management, continues to generate lots of cash, has an incredible cash horde, and is appropriately venturing into new territories.
2. Intel has been screwing up the past 2 years, coincident with Andy Grove's departure. For a period of time, from last September to this Spring, it was on a good run, with the PIII, no serious screw-ups, and tremendous demand. Meanwhile, the Itanium was on the horizon, as was the PIV.
3. Since the Spring, we learn that non-PC chip divisions are losing money, the PIV will be delayed, the timna chip is being dumped, and leadership has to be an issue. Some Intel posters on the Intel thread believe it is too early to question Craig Barrett's leadership as CEO, too soon to judge.
4. I think Intel is challenged on multiple fronts, and the transition now will be painful. I think the Market is less forgiving now than a year ago, as Intel cries Wolf more than once. I think it will take a lot of time to turn this around.
Nevertheless, there are some positives:
1. Overall, and for a long time, Intel's management has generally been good; combine this with $13 billion in cash, and give them a couple years, and I would still think Intel will be in a strong position(s) at that time.
2. To the best of my knowledge, NOBODY has the FAB capacity that Intel has. Many feel that this is the hidden strength, perhaps the source of its gorilla-ness. Combine management, with cash, with unmatched FAB capacity, with name brand, with a very long history of hi-tech relationships, and it seems to me all of the pieces are in place.
Whether these pieces will be wisely integrated in a way that will lead to a championship run is unknown. I think the key is management.
The question is: how does a shareholder determine, concurrently or in advance, whether management has the stuff or ability to make it happen?
apollo |
