To all. . . . . . . . RE: PHOENIX STOCKS . . . . . . .
Thanks AJ, for your superb work in identifying the important Phoenix plays. Your charts show clearly that these stocks are rising out of the pits of market weakness. They have set a trend all their own. They do not follow the trend of the index to which they belong.
I added the indices to the front of your chart list. . .so we can quickly see the trends of the Dow and NYSE and the Phoenix stocks from your list which trade there, and the Compx and Ndx and the 4 letter Phoenix plays, which look just stunning on a backdrop of Nasdaq decline.
Here is the modified link:
quote.yahoo.com^DJI+^NYA+a+LU+aol+cox+sds+vz+^ixic+^NDX+link+ATON+citc+gmst+chtr+rmbs+sivb+srdx+swir+rimm+qcom+sqnm+cmcsk+txcc+actu+otgs+acxm+tlgd+sial&d=3m
Note how LU and A track more closely stay with the trends of the Dow and NYSE, than the other 3-letter issues. The extent of the breakout, should be proportionate to the extent of the accumulation against the market trends.
But what is significant is this. The NYSE has staged its own little breakout against the rest of the indices, INCLUDING the DOW JONES 30 INDUSTRIALS!! The Nasdaq Composite, the Nasdaq 100 and the Dow Avg all seem to be headed lower, beginning roughly a month ago and continuing to present. The Dow has been mostly flat the past week. But the NYSE has begun to trend significantly higher, when compared to the other averages.
There must certainly be more Phoenix plays within the NYSE, that we are not yet seeing. And such stocks would help to indicate Fund Manager accumulation, which is the purpose of this study.
Moving down to the Nasdaq and NDX, they look just terrible. . .lower lows, lower highs. . .a sobering view of tech stocks. But we've seen this before. Last October, tech stocks were left for dead. Every pundit, analyst, journalist and most bulls were saying it. . . the "party is over" was their headline. . .and the public mostly bought it.
But look at what happened in 1999. The markets were trapped in a trading range on very low volume. . .it felt like a Bear Market. . . but while everyone was attending the funeral for TechStocks, the SMART money was being quietly shuffled into future winners, which were the "Phoenix" plays of 1999.
But last year, many stocks showed strength through the entire summer. . .bucking the sideways trend which started mid-April, 1999. . . a dozen or so, mostly optical or optical chip related stocks like Corning, Cienna, PMCS, AMCC, would not stop rising. Here is a link to list which illustrates this using a 2 year chart. First notice the trading range from April 99 to October 99 illustrated on the indices. . .then compare the optical related issues to the indices:
quote.yahoo.com^DJI+^ixic+^NDX+^nya+glw+cien+pmcs+amcc&d=2y
I haven't gone back many years to see the pattern or count the number of times when stocks would rise from the ashes, but I would think the history is well-established. This is our first year identifying what we are calling "Phoenix" plays, but it will be another mainstay of this community.
Thanks again for everyone's assistance in putting this study together. I am extremely happy and proud that so many were willing to take the ball and run with it. After my initial post on the Phoenix project, I barely had to lift a finger and the work was completed. This saved me many hours of time doing it myself.
The more cooperation I see us get on projects such as Phoenix, the more such projects I can propose. A year ago, I proposed similar projects, and wound up doing them myself nearly every time. The thing to remember about why this community of investors works so much better than most others, is the cooperation. And by increasing our cooperation, we increase our level of understanding of complex issues.
Look at how together we tackled the complex issue of Margin Liquidation. Do you guys even realize how few investor/traders outside this thread understand how this affects the markets? We've made it into a simple study, where we have been able to make totally accurate and important market calls, based on the knowledge WE have, through the cooperative effort of our people.
When I first made this thread, I christened it with a grade-school slogan. . .
"The whole is greater than the sum of its parts."
And so many times you guys have proved this to be true. But nowhere near as perfectly as on the Phoenix Project.
What we glean from the sum of our contributing parts is knowledge beyond our individual means. And that was my purpose in starting this thread. . .and will continue to be my purpose and focus when we move to Insighters.com. And if you now read the HOME thread header, it will all make much more sense to you.
Thanks to every poster here for your dedication, perseverance, cooperation, generosity and loyalty.
Collectively, you are a sight to behold.
Rande Is |
