Hi Voltaire:
Intel Sees Strong China Growth
Intel reporting strong (relative to current sentiment) earnings sets up an interesting psychological scenario for the NASDAQ bottom and reversal. All below IMHADDO.
'Disgust' with tech stocks and general negative and confused sentiments have been building lately and particularly in the last week, but there isn't enough rejection of optimism yet to produce a capitulation. NASDAQ decline is in itself a time capsule, as everyone analyst-wise knows it's going to end, just not sure when or where. Intel personifies this time capsule.
Yahoo Tuesday is not likely to produce a catalyst (no upside to consensus earnings). IBM and HWP are not expected to do much, don't know about MOT.
The current 3 days down / 1 day up pattern is holding nicely, despite e.g. Abbie Cohen's positive comments. This pattern should give us a relatively unexciting down Monday and relief rally Tuesday, with selling off after early morning Wednesday.
Given unexciting earnings Tuesday and forward, then the NASDAQ will continue to waffle down for the time being, 2 or 3 days down and 1 up. Stocks with reasonable earnings get moderately sold off after reporting. Negative sentiment continues to build. Listen to people here on this board for psychological capitulation ("stocks suck! tech sucks!" etc etc) by the weaker investors. Expect somewhat higher volatility as people feel the NASDAQ decline time capsule is coming to an end. No formalized capitulation, there are too many strong investors in the market.
Along comes Tuesday 10/17. Broker/dealer and general financial stocks start climbing in the afternoon.
Intel earnings as discussed. Psychological catalyst. Just for fun, Rambus and Siebel report blowout earnings that same day. Note the date, 10/17, good mid-October reversal (was 10/18 tech-wise last year). With the NASDAQ so low, options expiration 10/20 should help raise things. Moderate Naz rise through Friday 10/20, and massive upshoot starting Monday 10/23. Double time capsule endpoint, NASDAQ decline and options expiration.
Note that an Intel psychological catalyst is not as strong or as obvious as a NASDAQ capitulation catalyst, so I don't expect a 10/18-20 to be two or three hundred point NASDAQ days. Could even have a major selloff Weds 10/18 PM (NASDAQ likes to be contrary). By Monday, the idea will have soaked in, and we're off to the races.
IMO there is a compelling psychological symmetry to Intel providing a downward impetus and then the upwards catalyst.
- Dway |
