Wow - Expected hate mail and was pleasantly surprised. Gersh, yes, the Romans tried but they didn't have capability to carpet bomb. Problem is everyone is so close together like "Nam there is no way to tell who are the good guys and who are the bad guys. ( and in this battle, are there any good guys??)
Haim, as usual excellent analysis of the situation. I don't think the roots of this are anti semantic though, it is more to do with the visibility of the region IMO. There aren't many that see what goes on in India/Pakistan, the Africas etc and at least from the little I know, the fighting is not out in the open in the streets like in the middle east. I think it just makes bigger news because a kid in India with a gun and exposed to fighting in the jungles/mountains looks older after seeing the death of real war and going through "real battles" versus the young looking kids in the middle east throwing rocks or getting gunned down in a cross fire. The middle east action makes better video snippets for the 6 o-clock news Also more tourists head to the ME due to the importance of the area to various religions that are the majority here in the states.
As for the markets, how can they still be looking to Wolanchuck for guidance? He is still bullish and was screaming buy at the recent top. I never followed him before but now that I saw his posts first hand, I rate him below Abby, Ralph and Joey. Talk about getting your people in at the top!
I stayed up late last night and checked some weekly cycles looking for a lasting bounce time line and have the SPX capable of bouncing as soon as 2 weeks but the NASDAQ appears to be at least another 4 weeks out. I was amazed to not have any class 1 or 2 signals in my system ( different system than Don's ) so I think it is too early to look for a lasting turn up here and expect a weak bounce if at all. On my blended composite index, it seems to be targeting expiration week as the turn point but it is unclear if it will head up for expiration or wait until shortly after to do so. My cycle line fell right on the 18th.
My biggest fear is that we have already broken multiyear trend lines going back and containing previous selloffs in many of the leader stocks, more practically priced issues and minor sector indexes. The Major indexes have much much farther to go to get back to multi year channels as I have been saying on our site but if they try to drop the same as the smaller sector indexes and stock charts have already done, we haven't seen any selling yet. Just equitable drops in the heavy weights that are propping the indexes up here like SUNW, GE, EMC etc could drop the NASDAQ another 500 to 1000 points, the SPX to 1100 and the OEX to 600. I am not targeting these areas by a long shot but what I am worried about is if these were to drop substantially, would there be a bounce? If foreign money reverses out and there are mass fund redemptions, there might not be X-mas in whoville after all. What worries me the most is the lack of selling. Looking at times and sales, there are only small blocks going off moving prices due to a lack of buyers. One stock I am trading actually is letting the small blocks move prices down then the big blocks come in and buy it all up hours later. At least for this one, it does appear to be under accumulation. I don't have the resources to check others though and feel it may be isolated.
I want to see a rapid flush and get it over with or this could last longer than even the bears want it to. Reading around SI, it seems no one is willing to short this low and they want a bounce to short into while bulls are waiting for signs of a bottom before buying. There just isn't much fuel to spark a rally here with the only shorts being the commercial SP00 traders who actually have increased. Oh well, maybe the kids will get stock certificates in their goodie bags this Halloween. People have to do something with all those worthless B2B and Internet pieces of paper. -ggg-
Good Luck,
Lee |
