Thanks, Kaliico. All this talk of breaking support levels. . and EVERYONE and their brother calling for further drops could set up for a capitulation day. Then again, as everyone looks to the South, the Manipulators could headfake us South and make a mad dash to the North faking everyone out. And don't forget there is a bit of Holidility Monday, as the Bond markets are closed and those who can afford to, are taking the day off.
I have to be honest with what I am thinking, though this might offend some. . . . I am really feeling as though the "Po' Boys" are using TA like a club over the heads of the Individual Investors. Is it my imagination? Or are those who are trading strictly on TA, and throwing all Subjective Indicators aside, finding themselves on the wrong side of the trend more often as 2000 rolls on?
How many times over the past 5 weeks have we heard Technical Analysis pointing higher? Even Ralph Bloch predicted a Technical Bounce. . . and was toasted. And now that everyone and their brother is thinking we drop to 3300 or lower. . . .which in effect lets the STEAM out of the Tech market. . . a sharp move higher would catch the MOST NUMBER OF INDIVIDUALS off guard.
And isn't that what it is all about anyway?
I am long my Value Techs and Value Telecoms. I am long some Phoenix plays. I am long my usual assortment of sleepers and Rat Dogs. Covered Optical Wannabes. . .and went long Optical Giants. At this point, I am short nothing.. . .OH, I think there might be a few shares of something or other I failed to cover before Friday's close. But I am essentially covered on the short side and long the rest.
As you have all seen, I can turn on a dime. . . .and often do. However, I am more cautious about shorting this market than I am about going long at this point. We are just too close to the historical turning point days of Mid-October. . .
And like most every October, it is filled with worry. This year it is Tech Earnings [or not], Too Rapid a Slowdown vs. Not Enough Slowdown [depending who you ask]. . . War & Oil [they always seem to go hand-in-hand], Euro & Asia [Why do we Americans have to be the ones to devalue our currency anyway?], Elections [will we get a bird-brain? Chances are good!! . . let's see. . .a bird-brain in the Gore is worth two Bush's. . right?] and the endless debate on which way interest rates are headed [my money is on "sideways"]. . .
Meanwhile Christmas is coming. . . There are 77 days or 1851 hours or 111,104 minutes or 6,666,251 seconds left to get that shopping done.
Speaking of which. . . .ever think about giving your loved ones a gift they will NEVER forget? Spend your time with them. . . show that you care. . .tell them you love them. . .talk to them. . . laugh with them. . .and forgive them. I guarantee you that nothing you will find in any store will matter more.
Rande Is |
