Yes I did see the posting. Can't imagine why he didn't mention WD. While WD gets most of their heads from Read-Rite, I believe they too get substantial quantities from TDK/SAE. I have lost the bubble on the quantity of heads they might still be getting from IBM but they might be able to fill any shortfall with heads from TDK/SAE.
But I'm told everyone is having shortages, in the ASIC's, DSP's and right on down to capacitors, etc.
Not sure what he means by "manufacturers were not ready for the sudden increase in demand." From all indications, the PC demand side, going into the December quarter, is going to be down y/y, but is expected, now, to be up slightly q/q. We'll see what guidance Seagate gives us Tuesday, since they are the first out of the HDD earnings box. (And regretfully the last time we'll hear from Seagate for a few years)
I believe his statement, "Prices are rising, and inventory is scarce," is an accurate assessment of what is in store for this current quarter.
For example, Seagate has been on allocation for over 4 weeks now, and I believe that to be case at all the drive vendors to one degree or another. So it's clear unit volume will be down y/y but the question is whether the increases in pricing will be enough to give us enough revenue (and an increase in profits) to overcome the drop in units.
I'm hoping it will!
Regards,
LT |
