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Technology Stocks : Wind River going up, up, up!

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To: peter grossman who wrote (8606)10/9/2000 3:31:30 PM
From: James Connolly  Read Replies (1) of 10309
 
Peter,

The Lily pond modelling idea is excellent. However, I think we need to be very careful and conservative around timing. Knowing how a particular Lily pond will ultimately turn out is one thing but knowing when it will happen is another. I2O is a case in point. Although it now looks like I2O has turned the corner, I think it's fare to say it took much longer than anyone expected.

Some of the Lily ponds appear easier to judge than others. For xDSL, cable modems and general networking equipment we have something to go on, since they are already ramping . The question is more one of growth rates and ASP's. Again with sever appliances based around I2O the question is one of growth rates and ASP's. However It's in the consumer area that things get very cloudy at least for me. It will be an interesting exercise.

Regards
JC.
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