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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: AllansAlias who wrote (25994)	10/9/2000 3:35:57 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (2) of 436258

i think the bounce may have some legs unless an unexpected outside event upsets it again. this is only a very short term comment however. ultimately i believe today's lows will be broken, and so will the May lows imo. EDIT: while i typed this it lost some oomph... history always gets thrown out of the window at market tops...probably because the higher degree tops always seem to flout historical norms. therefore it becomes impossible to properly time them (an effect i have often alluded to: once the COMP had an aggregate p/e of 256, why not 300? it is equally meaningless) and the mere fact that all historical yardsticks have fallen by the wayside in the marketplace seduces people into believing that this is 'proof' that 'it's different this time'. even the Fed seems swayed by the stock market's performance...instead of recognizing it for what it is, namely a liquidity induced bubble, they have begun to regard it as ancillary 'proof' of the 'productivity miracle'. in reality, the latter probably wouldn't exist without the former...in a 'virtuous cycle' gains in the financial and real economy tend to reinforce each other. however, the obvious conclusion that we should thus do everything to inflate the bubble even more is wrong, because the rate of growth of the asset and credit inflation tends to be much larger than the concomitant growth in the real economy and its constituent parameters like productivity. in other words, although positive economic trends can be discerned amidst a bubble, the negative imbalances accompanying them grow much faster. this is what creates the 'speed limit' for bubble expansion. one area that has amply demonstrated that we have apparently reached the speed limit is energy...you can't print energy, or rub Aladin's lamp for more barrels of oil. once a bubble meets up with its natural limit (most importantly the limit to further geometrically growing credit creation), it must unwind.

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