Re: , I learned a long time ago not to invest in "doom and gloom"...not that it won't happen some day...
Jim,
I'm not investing in doom or gloom, yet.
I'm hedging my bets with some crash puts and some rally calls. As long as we move, I'm good. The last two weeks have given me some of my best gains I've ever seen. I'll have 200 call contracts that expire worthless next week. Next month it may be the put contracts that expire worthless.
IMHO, there simply isn't enough FEAR yet for the big one to strike. Wait until one million investers are hovering over their computers with their hands on their mouses ready to hit the "market order sell" button as soon as the other guy makes the first move.
We haven't seen PANIC selling yet. Talking to many that have witnessed panic selling in the past, they all tell me that not even April's terrible intraday move was panic selling. The closest we got was aftermarket after the Intel warning. FEAR will drive the PoG IMO, even if the fundamentals don't justify it, but by then I'll be gone and on to something else.
Now, the sentiment is that we will go back up and there is enough dip buying to stop us from going into danger land.
With time, I feel this will give. I'll get more aggressive on the bearish side at that point. Who knows, nobody might see it coming, for all we know tomorrow could be the day lock limits hit.
P/e's and market capitalizations certainately didn't matter on the way up and they definately won't matter on the way down.
Here's one for ya, when was the last time the PoG per ounce was more expensive than the DOW?
Another one, how long did it take RCA to make new highs after the '29 crash? Did the radio and television boom live up to expectations? Oh, but this time it's different with the Internet.... LOL
chic |
