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Technology Stocks : Orbital Engine (OE)

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To: Dr Mike who wrote (4509)10/9/2000 9:16:06 PM
From: Maverick  Read Replies (1) of 4908
 
Dr. Mike, lets go over things individually:

Gasoline isn’t being priced properly. Not based on LONG TERM availability. Meaning it isn’t being priced relative to the fact that’s it’s a non renewable resource. What’s going to happen is when the supply of oil finally becomes a problem, the price of everything made from oil is going to go thru the roof. By the time this happens, gasoline will be on it’s way out and vehicles will be propelled by something else. But what about all the products that use oil as their base? This list is so much bigger than the average person realizes. Just one category is enormous. Plastics. But then there’s also carpeting, clothing, paint, dozens of synthetic materials, various coatings, etc. And of course it’s used as an energy source for purposes other than propelling vehicles. Literally millions of products START with something that is an oil derivative. Meaning when the oil starts to run out, the price of all these products will go thru the roof. And then they won’t even be available. Or a more expensive alternative will take the place of the oil. Hopefully, technology will find suitable, affordable substitutes. But this is a risky game we’re playing with someone else’s future. To give you an idea of how wasteful America is of energy, consider it’s population and it’s consumption. I don’t have exact figures at hand, but I believe the USA comprises less than 10% of the world’s population but uses something on the order of 30% of the energy. With a massive trade deficit, you can’t attribute that to manufacturing. It’s actually true that the popularity of SUV’s has escalated fuel demand in the USA, costing ME more at the pump. You don’t need a 4500 LB vehicle to get to work by yourself, and I resent paying for part of it. Here’s a good order of magnitude for how bad this abuse is. Assume man has been wandering the earth for about 3000 years. And we’ll assume the oil lasts until 2200. Could be early, could be late. Depends on our desperation to get it all and our willingness to sacrifice preserved areas. Over a course of over 3000 years, in the mere 300 years since the industrial revolution we will have squandered all the oil. That’s pretty aggressive consumption. Our grandchildren are going to wonder what we were thinking. Nobody learned squat in 1973 is what they’re going to conclude.

No, you don’t spew more pollutants than the law allows. But the law imposes tighter emission limits on passenger vehicles. Because the laws were written before SUV’s became popular for non business use, in an effort to make (still improper) concessions to business. The argument that "the law allows" also permits you to cheat on your wife, be a racist, or refuse to buy your children gifts on their birthdays. A very weak position. Which Dwight did a better job of explaining. But I thought the "cheat on your wife" example needed to be included.

Finally, the safety issue. SUV’s aren’t "safe". Until very recently, none of them were required to pass the same crash standards as passenger vehicles. For the very same reasons - concessions to business because their primary uses were not lugging around Mom and the kids. But 99% of America has no idea of this fact. Finally passenger car standards are starting to be applied to "trucks". But in the meantime, SUV’s are not only dangerous for those around them because of their size and weight and vehicle dynamics, the inferior design of their interiors and lack of proper "crush zones" also puts their own occupants at risk. Meaning that when you hit the bridge abutment with your 4500lb SUV, you and your children likely to sustain WORSE injuries than had you been driving your neighbors 3000lb Volvo. Minivans dealers aren’t advertising this fact. But Ford is certainly waking people up to it. When was the last time you heard of a passenger car rollover on smooth, level pavement? SUV’s are inherently unstable. It’s physics, ask any engineer. You can try to minimize it, but you can’t even begin to get rid of it. The basic truth is a tire failure presents a very real risk of rollover on a lot of SUV’s. They go into a spin, and unlike a car, they flip. It’s virtually impossible to flip a passenger car under the same conditions. The center of gravity is simply too low relative to the width of the vehicle. And vehicles get thrown into spins all the time, not just from tire failures. The bottom line is that these SUV’s consume excessive fuel for what they’re being used for, they’re running up the price of gas for everyone, they’re causing the earth to run into an oil shortage prematurely, they’re not safer for the owner except certain circumstances because they don’t meet passenger car requirements, they’re putting me and my family at risk because of their height, weight, inferior stopping distances and mismatched bumper heights, and they’re spewing pollutants only because the manufacturer wants to save a mere $200. But it is legal to cheat on your wife. At least it’s one of your protected freedoms in America. You should feel guilty for the driving the SUV the same way the guy who cheats on his wife SHOULD feel guilty. But he doesn’t and neither do you. Your income is the fuel of your justification - combined with the premise that the market has correctly priced everything. It hasn’t. It’s very expensive to have season tickets to the Mets. You can play baseball with your kids in the back yard for free.

To understand the problem with SUV’s, you have to accept that they’re doing harm to others and that they are NOT safe. Not safe for you to ride in, and not safe for others to be rammed by. First it was cigarettes. Next up is drivers using cellphones. And SUV’s owners come after that. It’s coming. Firestone and Ford put the ball in motion.

I state all this despite SUV’s are an ideal market for OE’s products. And no, this wasn’t personal. I appreciate your acknowledgement of my previous posts. I just think it’s a shame so many American’s think their kids are safe when in fact they’re not. I believe they identified another Explorer victim today. The vehicle just had the two tires that were made in Decatur replaced. One of the other two Firestone’s - not covered by the recall because they weren’t made in Decatur - peeled it’s tread, the vehicle went into a spin, rolled, and the woman driving was killed. I would say this incident is going to cost Firestone and Ford about $500 million. I would guess the average "cost" of a these fatalities will be about $100 million per incident, which now number well over a hundred with the number rising fast. This is a lawyer's dream. Firestone is done, Bridgestone is on the ropes, and Ford is in big, big trouble. And when the engineers are forced to explain that SUV’s are inherently dangerous, the party really will be over. The engineers will testify that the same tire failure would not have rolled a car, and that when a car is rolled for some other reason; the odds of the occupants surviving, despite the car being a lighter vehicle, are GREATER.
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