Hi all; Re the importance of DDR and SDRAM royalties to RMBS stock price...
Since the forecasters (Dataquest, Instat, and Semico) are now predicting that DDR will gather somewhere between 17 and 35% of the 2002 DRAM marketplace, the question of whether Rambus will collect royalties on DDR becomes much more important. Figures are from Dataquest:
dramreview.com
Assuming that royalty rates are SDRAM 1%, RDRAM 2%, and DDR 3%, the prospective RDRAM, SDRAM and DDR royalties, as predicted by the production figures for Dataquest, Instat, and Semico for 2000 through 2003 are easy to calculate. Values are percentages of total DRAM marketplace, and therefore do not include royalties on controllers. (The DRAM market is something like $30 billion per year. Adding in controllers would likely close to double that figure, I think.) I don't have figures for Instat and Semico for 2003 split between DDR and SDRAM, and so I chose to split that share between them. SDRAM figures are calculated as the difference between total production and the RDRAM and DDR shares. This is a slight overstatement of SDRAM production, but not by more than 10% or so.
RDRAM DDR SDRAM
Analyst 2000 2001 2002 2003 2000 2001 2002 2003 2000 2001 2002 2003
--------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
Dataquest 0.12% 0.58% 1.00% 1.12% 0.18% 0.30% 0.51% 0.72% 0.88% 0.61% 0.33% 0.20%
In-Stat 0.10% 0.32% 0.66% 0.92% 0.09% 0.45% 0.57% 0.81% 0.92% 0.69% 0.48% 0.27%
Semico 0.06% 0.09% 0.03% 0.03% 0.09% 0.66% 1.05% 1.48% 0.95% 0.75% 0.64% 0.50%
Adding the DDR and SDRAM figures together gives:
RDRAM DDR/SDRAM
Analyst 2000 2001 2002 2003 2000 2001 2002 2003
--------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
Dataquest 0.12% 0.58% 1.00% 1.12% 1.06% 0.91% 0.84% 0.92%
In-Stat 0.10% 0.32% 0.66% 0.92% 1.01% 1.14% 1.05% 1.08%
Semico 0.06% 0.09% 0.03% 0.03% 1.04% 1.41% 1.69% 1.98%
This is why I believe that the legal news is far more important to RMBS' stock price than news of RDRAM (which is quite dead anyway).
-- Carl |
