Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum

WDC 157.75

+1.5%

Nov 26 3:59 PM EST

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To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (8835)	10/10/2000 4:13:16 AM
From: La Traguhs	Read Replies (2) of 9256

SSB is forecasting Maxtor to do 6.5 million drives. That's bleak in my book since that would be flat q/q, since they did 6.5 million drives last quarter. What's more important is what the unit sales will be in the December quarter. We need to be very careful in the next few weeks trying to keep the "PC spin doctors" in check. You'll hear that the HDD industry can't supply the PC folks demand implying that PC demand is still up when in reality, this next quarter the HDD companies will continue to be in allocation due to part shortages, and PC demand will be flat to slightly up y/y. I hope I'm wrong about PC demand trends. If we get the historic demand we got in past Q4's, then because of allocation, prices will really climb and some of the HDD companies may even make a respectable profit. It could even be possible that the PC folks take it in the shorts this next quarter while us HDD folks see profits. Now that would be a nice switch from the past 3 years. Regards, LT

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