y2kate,
You seem to believe that the actions of government and/or financial institutions could prevent a melt down and/or a prolonged bear market. They could postpone it, and they are, but they can not stop a bubble from bursting. Study other crashes, bubbles, and manias. Once they start to unwind they are unstoppable. This is not my view, this is the lesson that history teaches.
prosperity, productivity, technological revolution, etc.
Ho, ho, ho. This sort of argument has been used in other bubbles. It is the cornerstone of the clown ideology. They made the same argument in 1929 and 1965. In these and other manias the heartfelt belief in each case is "This time is different."
I just can't see the markets falling to pieces like many are predicting
Try harder. -g Seriously, do you think that investors ever once saw it coming clearly enough to get out of the way? Do you really think that today's clown is a smarter investor than those that came before? Perhaps you feel it helps to have a 'puter hooked to the net where one can get up to date information and exchange ideas? Nope.
Most of us here want to be rational long-term investors, but we realize that our hand has now been forced and this will not be possible until she unwinds. True, in the widest timeframe it makes sense to be a bull. Any fool can see that. However, given the extraordinary situation we find ourselves in now, being a long-term bull is foolish. The clowns should remind themselves that we have not had a new high since March. That makes up moves countertrends -- counter to the move of least resistance -- down.
Look, who know. Maybe we get our 4th/1st quarter pop. If we do I will be going long until it stops working. But I won't be buying any CSCO, INTC, NTAP, JNPR, or whatever other stupifyingly overvalued POS you can mention, for my long-term account.
ps: I will not try any harder than this to "convince" you or others. This post is not original. Many other articles, books, and even posts on SI are more learned and eloquent. If you truly believe that "this time is different" or that we are not in a mania at all, then you should trade that belief. |
