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Pastimes : ClownBuck Deathwatch
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To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (62)10/10/2000 9:03:09 AM
From: BigBull  Read Replies (1) of 329
 
Patron, don't know if it will "catch" on, and don't know just how many dollars Saddam is selling, still it represents another source of "clownbucks" that were not there before, and will probably put a small dent in dollar bullishness.

BTW Euro currencies are up and dollar down in premarket trading. I had thought a clownbuck double top was a distinct possibility here, with two variants probable;

1. Symmetrical
2. Weak right top.

If the dollar continues to weaken over the next few days, number 2 is the likeliest scenario, which would mean the dollar is even weaker than I thought. If the Euro CB's decide to "hit the dollar" as it goes down the move could be pretty sharp. I think they've already strongly signaled to all those companies in Europe that were buying dollars to purchase US assets that the jig is up. I don't expect to see nearly as much dollar support from those parties as we've seen in the past.

I'd also like to bring up another potential dollar problem. Political leadership. The US will see a major change in executive leadership within months. Clinton is now the lamest of all possible lame ducks. While Gore is more of a known quantity than Bush, it must be stated that current Clinton Middle East peace initiatives have been a complete disaster. Will Gore be any better? If serious conflict (war) breaks out in the Middle East will people flee to the dollar as the normally do? This time maybe not. We'll see.

Fianlly, the "unthinkable" might happen sometime in the future soon. Greenspan retires. No matter who wins the election, Greenspan pobably has the Fed job if he wants it. But the guy IS getting old and may want out if things get rough.
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