Hi Paul V, Re: "Since AMAT hit $51.625 today it is off approx. 54.15% from its highs. How, low can we expect it to go. Any ideas?"
First of all Welcome Back. I know you have been busy with the construction of your Smart House financed by your winnings in AMAT shares) that you got no time to Post here until now.
As for DSL, Cable or 56k modem for Internet use, I use cable and I can say that although I pay twice the subscription of the dial-up 56K modem, I get lots of fun with the quicker response even when viewing Streaming Videos. I first applied for DSL (using a telephone line) but because of trenching problem (the telephone company doesn't like to dig up the road in front of my house to install new lines). The deposit of $100 I gave to Flashcom/Covad was never returned despite repeated complaints by me; I hope that money will not cause Bad Luck later for those companies involved.
as for AMAT, it's a Bargain right now; you even told us here in this Thread before that 50% discount is a bargain... Actually my Spy said 63 price of AMAT is equivalent to -60% decline of price in 1996 and '98. So a -63% decline like in 1996 is equivalent to about 57 price now. My Spy believes and I also concur with him that the decline of stocks this time are way overdone. Look at INTC, at the low of 38 yesterday, the decline is about 50%. In those many years past when INTC prevented AMD to even lift its head momentarily Up, INTC never declined that much (-50%). Look at MSFT, DELL, TXN and many others.
... and if you remember, in the past I always told you that once AMAT hits 63 (whether it came from above or below), it may even decline to 58, 57 but the stock remembers to go up to 63, consolidate there to prepare for that eventual climb to 100+.
AMAT's low was 51 1/2 last week --- a 55% decline, followed by 51 5/8, 51 3/4 and back to 51 5/8 yesterday --- as you can see, the stock is trying its best not to decline to that dreaded -60% (and worse) mark. The Traders are still waiting for more Bad News to come from those unscrupulous Paid Analysts.
Where do I expect the stock will top next time? Well, figuring the top is a hit and miss game although I got lucky when in answer to Brians question I said "120 to 130" as the top for 1999. That brave forecast of mine again the most Bullish got a response of "ROFL!" from a Bear visiting in this Thread that time. (I just hope that that Bear did not subsequently lost a lot of money ROFL-ing his way averaging his shorts as the stock Up its way some more way way up to the equivalent of 230 ! (115 post-split !).
Is it time to buy again? I know you know where I stand. |
