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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: Tony Wang who wrote (26175)10/10/2000 1:16:36 PM
From: Earlie  Read Replies (1) of 436258
 
Tony:

As noted in the past, 1998 proved to be too early to be shorting an obvious (and I do mean obvious) peaking of the growth cycle in PCs/semis. Recognizing the mania was expensive. But 1999 was more than a delight and 2000 has been a ball (all on the Vaderian side of the market), so no complaints at this end.

As noted over the last few days, I have cleared most short/put positions, in expectation of a "bear market bounce". I may well be totally wrong about this but I've learned not to be greedy and taking profits off the table rarely leads to bankruptcy court appearances.

I'm not worried about the N.Y. analytical crowd having turned into bears, at least not yet. We have a long ways yet to fall before there will be any chance of a value-based bottom. These characters only reduce their estimates when they are forced to by events, so that their recent bearish pronouncements are merely the closing of the doors of empty barns.

Actually, having very little exposure to the short side does make me very nervous at the moment, as I may well be setting myself up to totally miss the big waterfall. That said, one has to play the game as one thinks it is likely to evolve and I think the odds of a decent bounce occurring are good. I will dive back in if it does. If it doesn't I will return to the action farther on down the road.

By the way, it sure wasn't "explaining the obvious" many months ago and my posts haven't changed much in content of late. (g)

Best, Earlie
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