adcpres,
>>>> interesting the COMP is exhibiting the same behavior as yesterday so far today -- possible turn around coming in the next 1/2 hour?? Or is capitulation around the corner? <<<<
Heck, if I know. Just glad that Im 83% cash. If I had to guess, and this is my guess. The huge rally in the NAZ started around the 2700-2800 in OCT of 1999. So if the NAZ was to drop to the 2700-2800 range, that would be a 100% retracement of the last main UP-LEG in the NAZ bull run. Not to say it cant go lower, but that would be my guess that the 2700-2800 range would be the lowest that this specific sell-off could get before the election. Again, Im not saying that it cant go lower after the election, and thats my guess for worse case senerio before the election.
Lets say hypothetically that the NAZ gets down to 2750; that would be about a 2400 point decline off of the 5150 all-time highs in the NAZ. So if the NAZ was to get to the 2750 region the common FIBONACCI 38%/62% rebound level would be back to 3650/4250(respectively).
So if we close at the lows today(3200), I will add another small position in the UOPIX reducing my cash levels to about 75%-78%. I feel that is a reasonable bet with high probability of eventually being profitable. And if the NAZ continues down, I will continue to add.
Of course, I will attempt to nail the bottom, but since Im in so much cash, it is not a bad play to continue to add from this point onwards if done in small amounts, avoiding high risk plays, in terms of total portfolio.
Of course I could be wrong and the NAZ could drop alot more below 2750 before a FIBONACCI rebound, but thats the risks I will take. |
