re: How, low can we expect it to go. Any ideas?
That depends on whether you think the cycle is over. As the stock approached 50% off its highs, I have started following the sector closely. If the cycle is not over, then we've now given back the entire end1999-to-early2000 hightech mania blow-off, and the stocks may now be near a bottom. On the other hand, if this is the cycle end, then history tells us the last 3 cycles bottomed with AMAT at P/S of 0.9, 0.9, and 2.2. Therefore, I'd plan on beginning buying, in increments, at a P/S of about 3. I think that corresponds to a stock price of 30, using current trailing 12M sales.
re: smart house: Whatever you do today (unless you put fiber-optic to every room), it will be obsolete in 3-5 years. So, I'd make it upgradable, or don't spend too much money on it. I have a cable modem connected to an ethernet hub, which goes to both our PCs, and we are very happy with that. There are some unanswered questions about the longterm effects of exposure to microwave radiation, so I prefer cable to a local wireless network, until those questions are definitely settled. A cable modem is worth the extra cost, compared to a 56K modem. I know nothing about satellite offerings. I have decided to put all the PCs in one large room (the Office, off the kitchen). I don't like the idea of the kids dissapearing into their rooms, alone with the computer. By keeping the PCs in a common room, it makes it social, and I can exercise some oversight. I think it's important to think about the social consequences of the technology I choose. The main question, for me is not, "what makes the boxes fit together best?", but rather, "that makes the people fit together best?" |
