Eugene:
The issue is not whether anybody's opinions have been right or wrong. Both Brian and I have made some spectacularly wrong calls in the past. That is true for anyone who posts a lot.
And, you are right, I have made some inappropriate flames in the past. I will try to be more polite.
The issue is: whether we are going to allow a diversity of opinion on this thread. IMO, if either the bulls or the bears are driven off (by a concerted series of personal attacks), then the thread is not useful. Are we trying to make money, or are we trying to reassure ourselves by posting back and forth with people who totally agrea with our opinion? Was this thread improved by driving off Big Bucks, me, and several others in early 1999? That is why I'm considering a moderated thread.
BTW, I held (and posted that I did) a position in AMAT till January 2000. The stock peaked in April. That's not "being wrong for 2 years". I always worry about valuation, in this and every other stock.
Since the stock has been in decline about the same amount of time that it has been going up, over the last 5 years, a Permabull (by random chance) is right about 50% of the time.
Read Brain's responses today, and it is clear he sees nothing wrong with his flaming, and intends on continuing them.
Yes, the pressure is on. People who have gotten overleveraged are looking at margin calls. And that makes it even more important that we have a civil discussion, where all opinions are tolerated. |
