Paul V, I guess our computations for the Bear Markets of 1995-96 and 1997-98 do not tally with each other. In the former Bear Market it seems that you are saying that AMAT declined 62% but mine says 63.67%; and in the later Bear Market, yours says the decline is 69.44% but mine says 60.21%.
I got hard copies:
High on Aug 16, 1995 = 59 7/8 (was 119 3/4 pre-split)
Low on Jul 24, 1996 = 21 3/4
Percentage change = -63.67%
High on Aug 20, 1997 = 54 3/16 (was 108 3/8 pre-split)
Low on Oct 8, 1998 = 21 9/16
Percentage change = -60.21%
You can get Historical Prices here in this site: ---
chart.yahoo.com
So the High you expect next is 151. This time I'm not making any prediction on the High. But I'll see early next year if there's a chance for AMAT to double the High (115 X 2 = 230) to occur in Oct or later next year.
At the low price of 48 5/8 today, we are now -57.71% from 115. I guess many Bulls are still waiting for the price of 41.77 to match the price decline of 63.67 set in 1996... but with the Bears lowering their AMAT wares today many Bulls took advantage of the new discount. Sellers = 430, buyers = 200 today. In contrast, last week when the AMAT ware's selling price is higher: sellers = 450, buyers = 150... I think the vendors are learning that in order to encourage buyers so they can dispose of their AMAT share inventories quickly, they must lower their prices some more. When they get rid of AMAT, they can always buy Chemicals, Oils and Cigarretes! |
