YAHOO! It's Oktober-fest Again!
Yes folks , it's that time of year when the harvest is being taken from the fields and readied for market.The harvest may look a little lower in quality right now , but we always supply the market with the low grade stuff first that is fed to the bear cubs before they hibernate for the next few months.We need to protect those little critters , cause they add excellent fodder to the market when we begin harvesting the higher grade crops later on.
Well I see the after-hours market is working its magic again after the first installment in the REAL earnings reports.Great stuff!You can always count on the bear cubs to get excited in the early goings after hours.
They are selling CSCO,JNPR and JDSU because LU warned.They are selling PMCS cause.. well they make semi-cons.They are selling MSFT cause .. well that's what they have been doing for the past year.They are selling ORCL because it is a tech stock.They are selling DELL and AAPL because we all know everyone in the world who is ever going to own a PC or MAC has already bought one.They are selling QCOM because we know everyone in the world who is ever going to own a wireless already bought one and America's wireless is so far advanced.And round and round the mulberry BUSH the markets take it on the chin.
But where is the analysis these Beer chugging days of October?Where is the thought process that dictates if LU's optical business sucks because they are behind the curve , others are probably going gang busters during this major optical build-out?Where is the thought process that reasons if MSFT hasn't issued a warning by now , there won't be one?That INTC is now going for half-price on a 15% reduction?
Where are the gurus to explain that this is not by any means the top of the semi-cycle?In fact,we are just getting going in the more advanced composite semi industry.PC on a chip kinda thang stuff.Cell-phone on a chip.LAN on a chip. TV on a chip. Car on a chip. ( well maybe not a car) etc..etc...this is the future of semi-cons.
But they are silent.It is deafening.Only the bear cubs have a voice now.We are amused..not frightened..we know the game.Those who know the game will not capitulate like the bear cubs keep preaching they should.Like Winston Churchill said " We will never surrender ", and especially to group of bear cub actors.
So raise a mug-O'Brew to the great annual Oktoberfest .. where the only thing really being harvested is the MOM and POP investors who hear nothing but bad news for two months every year at this time , and are told to buy and hold , while the Wall Street gangsters plunder and pillage their life savings in the name of free markets. Hallalooya! Pass the Viener - Snitzle!
Now on to the FED. I see my buddy Al Greenspan finally dropped one of those plates he's been juggling for the past few years. You could hear the smashing China all the way to.. well... China!I'm disappointed Mr. G. You had the chance to go fully neutral and lost it.The Republican bear cubs were rejoicing in the Street.coms after that one. Dear Al...do you REALLY believe their is only 3.9 % unemployment?
Common???They must be joking or trying to save face at the BLS after their air conditioner fiasco.Oh well , I guess we won't hear any warnings of irrational exuberance in the near future. SNAFU --System Normal --All F U'ed.Well done!
Now the Oil ramping has started again on the so called " Mid-East Crises. SHHHESSH!! When is there NOT a Mideast Crises?But this time, the only " crises " is Arafat's old age sneaking up on him as he realizes he is soon to be a has been and wants one last kick at Israel for dirty deeds of the past.All this to place himself forever in the eyes of the Palestinians as the great leader of the cause, regardless of the bloodshed on his hands.
OH! And the desperate EURO appears to have shrugged of a failed wedding for now, but even a rate hike failed to ignite any real enthusiasm.We at least know it won't go to ZERO for some time. Very reassuring indeedy.
OH!OH! And how bout that stinky yeller stuff,eh? Ya! That AU nearly got up and frightened itself at 280 or so. Now THAT'S scary. I thought the world was about to end or something.Nice blip anyway.Yawn.
Well I wait till Oktober-fest is done for real here , after passing on taking any positions after Uncle Al's plate drop.
Coulda-shoulda shorted a few dogs , but what the hay .. will make it up on the other side later on anyway after the elections maybe or before when more earnings are released.
Thanks For Reading.. and..
Keep Yer Stick On The Ice, eh?
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