My thoughts about this Koreans wanting WCDMA
1) No matter what CDMA, it's always CDMA and I don't know how many times we have to repeat that.
2) All Korean carriers are going to CDMA2000 in current frequency band. That biggest cry baby SKT, is in fact the very first carrier to rollout the CDMA2000 networks. Every time I read those guys crying for WCDMA, I just can't stop laughing. You got to admit that these guys are excellent at playing games. On one hand they are pushing forward CDMA2000 decisively, quickly yet stealthily. On the other hand they are using that WCDMA slogan making a lot of noises trying to hold the manufactures/government hostage and prying some money out from the Japanese.
So let's see how exactly that WCDMA gonna play out in Korea.
The Time issue:
With the most optimistic expectation, NTT will rollout their testing networks next May. With all the unknown/unsolved factors. The real deployment is still years to come. So when CDMA2000 is well into its maturity, WCDMA will still be a little baby.
The market issue:
One of the main argument of going WCDMA is the so-called bigger market share in the future. Now let's take a look at these markets.
In America and Australia, there'll be very little doubt that CDMA2000 would be the major 3G play for the coming years.
In Asia, the major market would be China, Japan and Korea. Even though CDMA would be a smaller player in China and Japan. It's advantage technology will give it a real good potential in the long run, esp. in China. So as far as 3G concerned it's really hard to say who would be the bigger player in Asia.
In Europe, this would be the main strong hold for the WCDMA world, although nothing exist yet. But I don't think Koreans really think they can crack the Fort Europe with their own WCDMA products do they?
So the key point of this going for the main market will only lies in Asia. But given the fact of how hard the Koreans are lobbying the Chinese into using CDMA/CDMA2000. I don't see them throwing away that "minor" market at all.
The Standard Issue
Since the holy war, the convergence of the two main standards WCDMA and CDMA2000 is well underway, esp. from the CDMA2000 camp. All the major operators are rooting for the harmonization efforts. So it is very possible that the distinction between the two is nothing substantial. Multimode handsets/devices can really put this silly controversy into rest. Oh did I forget to mention that roaming will not be an issue by then? The backbone networks, just like the internet, can be deployed with whatever the flavor, which can in turn talk in any mode. So I think these carriers know that whatever the standard they choose now may really not matter in the future. So why not to use it as a bargaining chip?
The 3G service
As mentioned at the very beginning. Korean alreay start to have 3G now in old frequency band. Keep in mind that one of the major reason that 3G is using new frequency is that capacity becomes a major concern in some countries, esp. in Europe. Another concern is for the sake of roaming, which as I said, should not be a problem by then(just take a look at Kyocera 2035 dual band phone you will know what I mean). Now is capacity a concern for the Koreans? Haven't heard anything and consider the frequency efficiency and speed provided by the 1xEv, I still don't see the warning sign yet, at least not like the one that DoCoMo has right now. And that raises a question, how necessary is this 3G band actually needed for the Korean market? IMO, that 3G delay in the 3G band will not actually delay anything, so again it won't hurt much if you use that as a bargaining chip.
My spin:-)
If, I mean if they really wanna go for the WCDMA which means extensive build out of new infrastructures and new phones. Isn't that provides a great income source for Qcom, and Spinco? |
