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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 244.19+0.7%9:34 AM EST
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To: Bill Hermesmann who wrote (38112)10/11/2000 10:45:23 AM
From: Proud_Infidel  Read Replies (1) of 70976
 
Bill,

The derisive comments were mostly directed at how Jonathon Joseph had come to his conclusions of a cyclical peak in the SCE sector. He came out and said that there was an oversupply of tantalum capacitors in his July 5th call. Within a weeks time, NEC came out and said they were increasing their supply of tantalum capacitors because of a shortage. He used exactly one datapoint upon which to make his hypothesis. He would have failed out of any statistical school for that. The fact that he used one datapoint was bad enough; the fact that NEC came out within a week and basically said he was wrong on that one datapoint is worse still.

Additioanlly, TSMC yesterday came out and said they were on track for capex in '01 and beyond, from what they said in their previous guidance. If this is indeed the case, the cycle is still nowhere near over, as TSMC is the new barometer upon which to measure chip demand and they are planning large increases in capacity going forward.

Brian

Just because stocks in the sector are down does not make his assertion correct; it merely is a reflection of the terrible sentiment in the market all year. ie CSCO, MSFT and a host of others also have been drifting down from their highs. We are still a ways off until JJ is proven correct. My guess is that in the end he will be proven horribly wrong.
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