The New Economy and its Winners Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners

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To: Robert Rose who wrote (2155)	10/11/2000 2:09:03 PM
From: Wizard	Read Replies (2) of 57684

Robert, let me remind you that market particpants are not robots and fear and greed drive the market. Its not time to be fearful AFTER the VIX has already spiked and the NASDAQ is down 39% - it is time to be bold. Let me assure you that greed is just as strong an emotion as fear and someday, the market will view the glass as half full and not half empty and we will see new highs for leading companies. I view the market as a continuous event, a constant shake-out where winners and losers are sorted out daily, weekly, quarterly etc... Lucent is a loser and Nortel is a winner. i2 is a winner and Clarus (CLRS) is a loser. This is how I think and this is how I invest. Since its continous, its not always clear as to who is a winner and who is a loser so you have to develop a strategy such that there are degrees of comfort which translates how much you own. Yahoo is a classic case of a story working its way out. Yahoo is a winner in an industry undergoing a transition. Dot.com advertising dollars are shrinking while non-dot.com online advertising dollars are growing nicely. Dot.coms have been passing venture capitalist and IPO dollars between each other and calling it all revenue and Yahoo was a big beneficiary of all this and now that piece of YHOO's revenue base is shrinking. However, the ONLINE advertising market is a large, growing one and YHOO is taking market share and growing ahead of a growing industry. Right now, Yahoo's exposure to dot-coms has to be taken out of the mix but YHOO has one hell of a business model away from the BS dot-com bubble stuff. Yahoo's enterprise stuff is interesting and its a very efficient business model, perhaps the best ever. The stock reflects the underlying business transition but someday, Yahoo will be back. I believe in Yahoo and will be a buyer over time but its not my favorite due to the underlying transition.

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