Steve,
<<In April 2000, UMC announced a stock dividend of 200 shares for every 1000 shares of UMC owned, resulting in our ownership of 22 million shares additional shares of UMC.>>
You forgot to add in the extra 22m shares.
But they had to account for the shares because of the merger. They don't have to mark them to market every quarter. They aren't an investment company.
In any case, they didn't really get a boost from the unusual gain back in April. They won't get clipped because of it now.
This whole sell off is strictly because (a) some people believe that we are near a top in the semi cycle, and (b) others are herd followers who will follow the trend and ask questions later. If this is the top (or if the top comes in the first half of next year), then the selloff is probably justified. If it isn't, then it isn't justified. I think all semis are getting sold, even if their particular segment won't top next year. I don't believe that Sandisk will top then, but what I believe is irrelevant, needless to say. Earnings will out, in the end.
I think that there may be a small bounce in response to earnings, and if forward guidance is good (as I think it will be), we'll get a better bounce in late Nov, early Dec, after the election garbage is sorted out. However, we could have a sell off post election if one party controls both the presidency and the congress.
We'll just have to wait and see.
Sam |
