IJ:
At this market cap and given the data of Ziesche et al., I'm enthusiastic but cautious.
But, in the context of a search for leverage, my opinion re. "ultimate" chance of success is somewhat irrelevant....... I build a basket of leveraged plays where I think the odds of success are decent (reference Ziesche et al. and subsequent discussion by King). If the leverage is significant, one does not need to be correct at a high frequency. Huge returns, of course, go to those who can find both leverage and frequent clinical success. I generally muck with stocks before they attract interest, as was the case for ITMN in April, or after others have lost interest in a company that has cratered. I'm generally chicken, and have only stuck with three companies through to FDA Advisory Committee stage. In biotech, you don't need to be correct.... good money, IMO, is made from being "early" with big-science companies.
It's also moot for the mean time..... the drug will continue to garner use, off-label, for IPF. Those who watch closely will be able to collect enough anecdotal evidence to make a very good call.
I am not implying, suggesting, hinting or otherwise indicating that CNCT is a leveraged play. I am, however, looking at it, and I was asking for help to determine the degree of leverage which might exist.
I was buying at a market cap of 250M. I am not buying now, and I've sold all my shares. However, you asked a direct question, and my direct answer is..... yes, I think that Actimune helps to stabilize these patients. If it does, this share price will still prove to be a big bargain.
So, I've given you two answers.... (1) you're asking the wrong guy (I focus on small caps), and (2) yes.
You now know absolutely nothing more than when you asked, sorry.
Good luck!
Rick |
