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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: chic_hearne who wrote (27166)10/11/2000 10:38:06 PM
From: pater tenebrarum  Read Replies (2) of 436258
 
the Nikkei rallies in the second crash wave in late '90 never lasted beyond two or three days. but the bounces were often impressive, probably luring in dip buyers en masse.
the only rule on buying those dips was to sell as soon as it turned down again. holding and hoping didn't produce results.
the third leg down which began in early 91, after a several month rally, was a more protracted affair, but equally devastating. that was the mutual fund liquidation phase.
to provide some perspective: on the last trading day of December '89, the Nikkei hit an ATH above 38,000 points. by late Summer of '92, the first significant low of about 14,500 was reached.

interestingly, the second stage of the Nikkei decline was by far the worst, in points and percentages. it also was an extraordinarily speedy denouement, and the largest single leg of the stage two decline happened right at the very end, after two failed mini rallies led to capitulation.
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