ajwodecki: I'm not sure why you find my thoughts useful --I've been wrong so often this year I'm not sure they're worth following. I never thought we'd retest the May lows on the NASDAQ and bought in too early, repurchasing chip and chip equipment maker stocks at NASDAQ 3450-3500. Needless to say, I've gotten killed.
At this point, I'm fully invested and am holding everything I have. I do not think the chip cycle has peaked and, since I've ridden these stocks down, I'll ride them back up. I still think stocks like: ADI,AMAT, NSM, NVLS, TXN, ATML, LRCX, ALTR and XLNX are good buys at these levels. Then again, there are MANY good buys at these levels.
I do not know if we go lower or higher from here over the next week, but feel the NASDAQ will be higher than it currently is by year end. I have lowered my expectation and would be ecstatic if the NASDAQ finished the year at 4200, the high at the end of August. I will be watching the stocks carefully between now and year's end to try and learn which sectors have the most promise and strength for 2001.
I think the New Age energy companies and contract electronics manufacturers will be two of the better sectors to be in. Next year, I think there will be greater fear about the chip cycle and will own fewer chip and chip related stocks. Network storage is another sector that looks strong going forward. I think greater selectivity in the fiberoptic sector will be necessary and will restrict my picks to clear-cut market leaders (JDSU, GLW, CIEN). I have avoided all of the wireless sector stocks and am glad I have. I haven't figured out what the best play(s) are in the wireless software and infrastructure sectors are, and am open to suggestions. Having said that, Qualcomm still looks like a major player in this sector, albeit with more realistic expectations about its prospects. |
