VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED

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To: horsegirl48 who wrote (7512)	10/12/2000 8:36:28 AM
From: lurqer	Read Replies (1) of 65232

Bob B. says the big MOABO is going to be here soon enough and those who can wait will be set for life. On the one hand I don't totally disagree w/ Bob B. OTOH I have a few problems w/ his scenario. First is the timing. I currently (remember, all scenarios are "written on water") believe the capitulation phase will occur sooner than he does. He's more than a little vague w/ his timing, but as best I can gather his capitulation seems to be somewhere in '01 or '02, while I believe 1H of '01. The second difference is the depth of the decline of the capitulation phase. I've heard numbers such as a 70% decline or Naz at 1700 attributed to him. I'm not sure if these numbers are valid, since I don't personally subscribe to his newsletter, but IMO they are too sever. A third difference (that is related to the second) concerns the best strategy to take advantage of the volatility associated w/ the bear correction. His approach seems to be to wait until the capitulation (MOABO) and then buy. I prefer to selectively accumulate near the bottoms of the dips caused by the denial and fear (his anxiety) phases as well. You must realize, he believes in diversification - something like no more than ~ 4.5% in any one position. I OTOH am seeking those few companies that'll be growing 75 - 100% per year (NTAP, SEBL, etc. - you know the list). If you wait a year or more to begin the accumulation of these fast growers, even though their price has been depressed in the capitulation phase (remember in my scenario this phase is less sever), the price will still be higher because of the rapid growth. The fact that the capital gains clock starts ticking earlier is just an added benefit. BWDIK lurqer

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