Amy,
<Some sectors are extremely strong.
But some other sector areas aren't. I think Paul's analysis on AMD is astute: Europe's business PC is weak.>
I also agree that Paul is correct about Europe and with you that there may actually be some part shortages in a number of specific areas. Going forward, I think the issue with Intel and AMD is inventories, IMO.
As I recall, Intel's Bryant in the previous quarter said that his biggest concern was not in meeting demand ( it would be tough, but doable ), but rather building inventories. Also note that Intel is simply not taking its foot off the production peddle, even with signs of slacking demand. It makes sense to me. It is extremely difficult to nail the supply/demand issue on the nose. Given this then, Intel needs to choose between the lessor of two evils; having too little product or having too much. It is clear to me, and I think Intel, that it is far worse to have too little product, as was the case the past year. The results of not enough product is that your competitors will take market share and mind share. You will scramble to keep up, resulting in quick product launches, recalls, pissed off customers and delays. Good for AMD, bad for Intel. Of course, too much product is not good for Intel either. However, in this case, I think Intel's financial strength relative to AMD, will help it whether the storm much better than its competitor. I think we are entering this stage, and may be reflected in both companies' stock price ( clearly overdone for both, IMHO ). It has been noted in articles that AMD has shown increases in receivables and inventories. I expect similar results out of Intel.
All MHO.
Best of luck to everyone.
Steve |
