Re: We have had some panic selling today, and I am on a possible crash alert at this point in time
Yogi,
This is not even close to panic selling yet, IMO.
We haven't seen pain yet. We're still up YoY.
This mania got way more out of hand than ones in the past and there's a lot more pain to go. Keep in mind these stats:
the 83 stocks in the NDX that have a p/e ratio (the other 17 don't have the necessary 'e'), are selling at an average 98 times earnings, in spite of the contraction of e.g. MSFT's p/e to a level not seen in years.
this is still HIGHER than the average p/e ratio of the Nikkei at the very top.
clearly, what these stocks would be unable to deal with is an economic downturn of some consequence, as they have very little in terms of NAV. their value is derived largely from unquantifiable intellectual property and their customers willingness and ability to pay up for it.
an economic downturn would impair the ability part. another aspect often overlooked, is that at the height of the frenzied blow-off earlier this year, most were not just priced for stellar growth, but for accelerating growth, far into the future. this is typical of the new era thinking that develops near market tops: the belief that the business cycle is dead, and that growth rates can be projected forward into infinity.
that's usually also the time when the business cycle decides to wake up from its slumber and say hello to all and sundry.
chic |
