Steve's Channelling Thread Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (6237)	10/12/2000 5:01:09 PM
From: Logain Ablar	Read Replies (1) of 30051

Hi Zeev: We’ll I’m ready to s*** my pants so it must be pretty close to the time to buy. On the major indexes we have inflicted major technical damage. DOW broke its diamond to the downside. One would expect the Treasury to step in (I’d think Gore is toast if its under 10,000, of course if we are in a war situation supporting Israel, with no gas Gore has a chance). Some general comments. The Middle East situation looks pretty bad. We are over a barrel again, literally and the Palestinians know it. I was reading an Israel news paper and IMO either they pull back from the brink now or the Peace process is toast. Probably the only plus is Saudi & Kuwait will not shut us due to Iraq. I doubt Arafat would be doing this if he didn’t think he could win. Talk about rolling the dice. He should be over here investing in the market. I think today should officially end the denial phase of the bear market (hindsight) and we now start the “concern” phase. We are a long way from the capitulation phase. Probably that phase will end next October (way too far away to worry about now). Should have plenty of tradable rallies but capital preservation is key not wealth accumulation. The scary part is people think the market has priced in higher oil prices and an economic slowdown. We’ll remember the market swings in two directions and it always over swings. I wonder if we GAP down tomorrow. Bad PPI and it can happen. Good PPI and we can rally. This rally may last through the election but I would not hope for that long. Once earnings season and the election’s are over the concern phase will really start to set in. The Long Term Buy and Holds should use the next rally to salvage what they can. I’m assuming we don’t have a Black Friday and Black Monday scenario here. Someone asked my this AM about fund managers being done with tax loss selling by the end of the month. IMO tax loss selling season hasn’t even begun. Fund managers are paid based upon assets under management. Their incentives are not based upon taxes. Fund managers do not actively sell losers to match against gains to lower the taxable dividend. The reason they are selling losers in October is the year end for many funds and they do not want stocks with large losses showing up on the statement they report to shareholders. Tax loss selling will start in November when individuals start culling losses (the LU of the world) to match against gains. Traders should pick their favorite bouncers (I still can’t believe the carnage in semi equipment companies). Now some Israel companies that can prove to be nice targets IF the ME situation ends favorably would be CHKP, GALT, MRVC, OBAS and I’m sure others. INTL, CSCO and others also have exposure in this part of the world. A friend pointed out we are now in one of those periods when it seems all we hear is bad news. This helps change the sentiment to the “concerned” stage. The only good news, so far anyway, we are seeing less participation in this sell off compared with March – May. Of course tomorrow is another day. So with all this rambling what are your turnips saying today? <gg> Tim.

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next