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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 322.32-5.6%Jan 30 9:30 AM EST
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To: Tech Buyer who wrote (4773)5/22/1997 5:28:00 PM
From: LemurHouse   of 70976
 
<<<This is the mentality of the momentum players. All they really understand is the
<<<comparison to year-ago quarters. But, a couple of quarters from now they will be
<<<the ones comparing the rising profits to the cyclical low quarters. Then they'll be the
<<<ones bidding up our AMAT shares. Hmmm, not a bad scenario.

TB: I agree. Once the book/bill ratios start going up and earnings follow, then this will become a high profile stock and all of the momentum guys and late comers will pile-on. I think this has already started, but that it will really be rolling in six months or so. For that reason I think the projections given earlier on this thread using P/E's of 20 etc, are low. I liked the analysis, but they assumed that the market will value the issue rationally; and we know that that isn't how the market reacts to strong growth. I think the market will overract as the news continues to improve, and that it will drive both the price and the P/E much higher. I'm long on AMAT and a couple other semi equipment manufacturers and right now expect to hold through the end of this calendar year at least.

Responding to an earlier question re Michael Murphy. The latest issue of CTSL currently rates AMAT as a "hold", for what that's worth.
Cheers.
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